Remember the 2014 offense? It's ba-a-a-ck....

RamblinWreck92 said:
That's my point: Title is dumb because we aren't anything close to the 2014 offense.

And our numbers are elite ONLY because of the teams we've faced. We were not elite vs Clemson, Duke, nor PITT. We barely had an offensive pulse in the latter 2.
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Title isn't dumb. Title is cool and awesome. And johncu is saying the opposite of what you're saying.
johncu said:
Those efficiency numbers take quality of opponent into account, and they are elite DESPITE those games you reference.
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His comment that our passing game is weaker is for sure right.

I'm gonna stick by my red state/blue state analogy. Just waiting for the libertarian-for-CPJ metaphor to get unspooled around here. Fumbles are theft, etc.
 
18in32 said:
Title isn't dumb. Title is cool and awesome. And johncu is saying the opposite of what you're saying.

His comment that our passing game is weaker is for sure right.

I'm gonna stick by my red state/blue state analogy. Just waiting for the libertarian-for-CPJ metaphor to get unspooled around here. Fumbles are theft, etc.
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Libertarians for CPJ: currently wasting their starting QB votes on James Graham.
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
That's my point: Title is dumb because we aren't anything close to the 2014 offense.

And our numbers are elite ONLY because of the teams we've faced. We were not elite vs Clemson, Duke, nor PITT. We barely had an offensive pulse in the latter 2.
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You realize the other teams on the list have faced similar teams as us, right?
 
Someone would have to be a special kind of stupid to think that the best way to improve the program would be to fire our offensive coordinator.
 
18in32 said:
Title isn't dumb. Title is cool and awesome. And johncu is saying the opposite of what you're saying.

His comment that our passing game is weaker is for sure right.

I'm gonna stick by my red state/blue state analogy. Just waiting for the libertarian-for-CPJ metaphor to get unspooled around here. Fumbles are theft, etc.
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Yeah, I don't understand why people are harping on the games we lost when discussing our offense. We get it - we blew those games and are not a great team. But they are INCLUDED IN THE RATING THAT HAS US IN THE TOP 10 OF OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY.

If you're not clear on how the rating works, please go to this site and read it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

Also note that this rating is "calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games." So basically cupcake games can't inflate our stats because once they're out of hand the results don't even count.

I really think we're a decent passing game away from being like the 2014 team. We beat Duke and Pitt this year if we can throw the ball at all. Clemson is Clemson, we're not gonna win that either way, and USF was a total defensive/ST meltdown just like we had at UNC in 2014.
 
2014 offense redux? Hardly. Lots of crippling mistakes that cost us games were not in the 2014 offense. The 2014 offense included a couple of big WRs, so 3rd and long was doable.
And of course 2014 included JT, one helluva baller. No disrespect to TQM or TO, but JT was somethin' really special. One other thing: 2014 had a PK with 50+ yard range and icewater in his veins.
 
johncu said:
If you're not clear on how the rating works, please go to this site and read it: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff

Also note that this rating is "calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games." So basically cupcake games can't inflate our stats because once they're out of hand the results don't even count.
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It is not clear to me that the footballoutsiders website and the sportsourceanalytics twitter feed are using the same metrics. Did you see that somewhere?

In any event, the footballoutsiders metric for non-garbage possessions is a little odd.
footballoutsiders said:
Unless otherwise noted, all ratings and supporting data found on this site are calculated only after first filtering out garbage possessions, defined as of July 2018, as follows:
  • An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the first half and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt
  • An offensive possession of two plays or fewer that runs out the clock to conclude the second half with the score tied and does not result in a turnover, score, or field goal attempt
  • A possession in the second half of a game in which eight times the number of the losing team's remaining possessions plus one is less than the losing team's scoring deficit at the start of the possession
  • An offensive possession or non-offensive scoring possession by the winning team leading by eight points or fewer at the start of the possession that runs out the clock to conclude the game
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Look at how he calculates 'garbage possessions' – if anything the calculation is undercounting meaningful possessions. None of your possessions in the second half count if you have a bigger lead than the other team has remaining possessions.

In other words, say that you've played a close game but thanks to a pick 6 have a 13 point lead going into the 4th quarter. The other team drives the ball down into the red zone, but can't convert, and kicks a FG. They're down by 10 with 10 minutes to go. You get the ball back at 25, and go on a patented CPJ death march drive, trying to eat up clock with the steady accumulation of first downs. You drive the ball 60 yds (to their 15) and miss a FG. The other teams gets the ball back at their 25 with 2:30 to go, needing two scores. They move the ball down the field but can't score as time expires.

Your drive was definitely not meaningless – indeed using up all that clock was huge. But on footballoutsiders' methodology, that 7:30 drive that gained 60 yds and essentially put the game out of reach, is a "garbage" possession. This is because at the start of the drive you were up by 10, and the other team ended up with one remaining possession ((8 x 1) + 1 < 10).

They're trying to account for drives where you just "kill the clock" to run out the game – but if you have an offense like ours that "kills the clock" as a matter of course, meaningful offensive production by GT is going to be under-counted.
 
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18in32 said:
It is not clear to me that the footballoutsiders website and the sportsourceanalytics twitter feed are using the same metrics. Did you see that somewhere?

In any event, the footballoutsiders metric for non-garbage possessions is a little odd.


Look at how he calculates 'garbage possessions' – if anything the calculation is undercounting meaningful possessions. None of your possessions in the second half count if you have a bigger lead than the other team has remaining possessions.

In other words, say that you've played a close game but thanks to a pick 6 have a 13 point lead going into the 4th quarter. The other team drives the ball down into the red zone, but can't convert, and kicks a FG. They're down by 10 with 10 minutes to go. You get the ball back at 25, and go on a patented CPJ death march drive, trying to eat up clock with the steady accumulation of first downs. You drive the ball 60 yds (to their 15) and miss a FG. The other teams gets the ball back at their 25 with 2:30 to go, needing two scores. They move the ball down the field but can't score as time expires.

Your drive was definitely not meaningless – indeed using up all that clock was huge. But on footballoutsiders' methodology, that 7:30 drive that gained 60 yds and essentially put the game out of reach, is a "garbage" possession. This is because at the start of the drive you were up by 10, and the other team ended up with one remaining possession ((8 x 1) + 1 < 10).

They're trying to account for drives where you just "kill the clock" to run out the game – but if you have an offense like ours that "kills the clock" as a matter of course, meaningful offensive production by GT is going to be under-counted.
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It's time to develop the approved StinGTalk offensive efficiency indicator.
 
18in32 said:
It is not clear to me that the footballoutsiders website and the sportsourceanalytics twitter feed are using the same metrics. Did you see that somewhere?

In any event, the footballoutsiders metric for non-garbage possessions is a little odd.


Look at how he calculates 'garbage possessions' – if anything the calculation is undercounting meaningful possessions. None of your possessions in the second half count if you have a bigger lead than the other team has remaining possessions.

In other words, say that you've played a close game but thanks to a pick 6 have a 13 point lead going into the 4th quarter. The other team drives the ball down into the red zone, but can't convert, and kicks a FG. They're down by 10 with 10 minutes to go. You get the ball back at 25, and go on a patented CPJ death march drive, trying to eat up clock with the steady accumulation of first downs. You drive the ball 60 yds (to their 15) and miss a FG. The other teams gets the ball back at their 25 with 2:30 to go, needing two scores. They move the ball down the field but can't score as time expires.

Your drive was definitely not meaningless – indeed using up all that clock was huge. But on footballoutsiders' methodology, that 7:30 drive that gained 60 yds and essentially put the game out of reach, is a "garbage" possession. This is because at the start of the drive you were up by 10, and the other team ended up with one remaining possession ((8 x 1) + 1 < 10).

They're trying to account for drives where you just "kill the clock" to run out the game – but if you have an offense like ours that "kills the clock" as a matter of course, meaningful offensive production by GT is going to be under-counted.
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It's a tough spot for the stats guys to figure out.
  • You don't want to count the winning team's 3rd string against opponent 1st string stats
  • You don't want to penalize Clemson for putting their 3rd string in a blowout while Alabama keeps their starters in for their blowout
  • Its hard to track when enough non-starters got in the game
  • You want to be consistent and not objective, so you come up with a set of rules that should be pretty good
  • Even those rules undercount and overcount some possessions
 
18in32 said:
It is not clear to me that the footballoutsiders website and the sportsourceanalytics twitter feed are using the same metrics. Did you see that somewhere?

In any event, the footballoutsiders metric for non-garbage possessions is a little odd.


Look at how he calculates 'garbage possessions' – if anything the calculation is undercounting meaningful possessions. None of your possessions in the second half count if you have a bigger lead than the other team has remaining possessions.

In other words, say that you've played a close game but thanks to a pick 6 have a 13 point lead going into the 4th quarter. The other team drives the ball down into the red zone, but can't convert, and kicks a FG. They're down by 10 with 10 minutes to go. You get the ball back at 25, and go on a patented CPJ death march drive, trying to eat up clock with the steady accumulation of first downs. You drive the ball 60 yds (to their 15) and miss a FG. The other teams gets the ball back at their 25 with 2:30 to go, needing two scores. They move the ball down the field but can't score as time expires.

Your drive was definitely not meaningless – indeed using up all that clock was huge. But on footballoutsiders' methodology, that 7:30 drive that gained 60 yds and essentially put the game out of reach, is a "garbage" possession. This is because at the start of the drive you were up by 10, and the other team ended up with one remaining possession ((8 x 1) + 1 < 10).

They're trying to account for drives where you just "kill the clock" to run out the game – but if you have an offense like ours that "kills the clock" as a matter of course, meaningful offensive production by GT is going to be under-counted.
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I agree that it's flawed, but I think the example you show has a very minor effect on the overall number. That's maybe a couple drives that aren't counted out of 100+ in a season. Also, FWIW, we were ranked 11th in Offensive Efficiency BEFORE the VT game, so we're about to be even higher.

And just for a frame of reference, we were 23rd last year, 21st in 2016, 3rd in 2014, and 2nd in 2009.
 
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