Run it till you get it right

[johncu]

Following up on my previous post, here are the S&P+ rankings for Tech during CPJ's tenure...

2008: 41
2009: 21
2010: 61
2011: 15
2012: 13
2013: 21
2014: 4
2015: 56
2016: 44
2017: 61

What they demonstrate is... (1) Al Groh! Arrgh! We really wasted a lot of good offense during those years. (2) We had a real drop off on offense the past three years. Offensive genius status in trouble...

Here are the Football Outsiders Offensive FEI ratings, FWIW. I really like FEI and it tends to jive with actual results pretty well. For example, its formula had Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma as the best 4 teams last season (we were 60th). I'd be curious as to the differences in calculation, though, if anyone wants to dig deeper.

2008: 24
2009: 2
2010: 64
2011: 16
2012: 11
2013: 39
2014: 3
2015: 88
2016: 21
2017: 23

Very similar results, although it paints a better picture of recent years. I bolded the years where a 1st-year QB started. The trend is obvious there, although Justin Thomas was a notable exception in 2014. I think some teams are developing more creative strategies to deal with our offense (pre-snap shifts, varied blitzes, etc.) but for the most part we're doing fine. Offenses ranked in the teens and 20s should be more than enough to get us where we want to be. It's getting the rest of the team to catch up that's a bigger problem, IMO.

 

[johncu]

The counter off that motion worked and was responsible for a number of big plays. We even play actioned off it for the long TD pass, iirc. I literally have no clue how you get the takeaway that it didn't work and why you would say that after you yourself suggested doing it.

This is why watching the game matters if you're going to comment on it. The counter (either option or just a keeper by TM) has been by far our most successful play in the TaQuon Marshall era.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

The counter off that motion worked and was responsible for a number of big plays. We even play actioned off it for the long TD pass, iirc. I literally have no clue how you get the takeaway that it didn't work and why you would say that after you yourself suggested doing it.

I was referring to the non-counter play- the one that gets stuffed in the first 2 videos.

not sure how anyone can watch those first 2 videos and tell me that the play "worked" when we got tackled for a multiple-yard loss and had 6 defenders in TQ's face 2 of the 3 times??

 

[18in32]

Here are the Football Outsiders Offensive FEI ratings, FWIW. I really like FEI and it tends to jive with actual results pretty well. For example, its formula had Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma as the best 4 teams last season (we were 60th). I'd be curious as to the differences in calculation, though, if anyone wants to dig deeper.

I would also be curious to know how these various new-fangled statistics are calculated. As I understand it, that's proprietary information.

Generally, though, I'm pretty wary of thinking that the opaque statistic is more reliable *because* it jives with actual results. The utility of stats, IMHO, is to tell us something the results did not.

 

[18in32]

I was referring to the non-counter play- the one that gets stuffed in the first 2 videos.

Isn't it the OP's point that all three of the plays in the gifs are the same play, run with varying degrees of success?

 

[gtleviathan]

I was referring to the non-counter play- the one that gets stuffed in the first 2 videos.

All 3 are the same play. And they're all counters. The a-back motion is to the opposite side than the play is run.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

Clemson is the only one of those teams you listed that we don't routinely run all over. They're just too damn good.

Here are our rushing totals vs. Miami the past 5 years:

2017 - 226 yds (dropped tremendously after Benson went out)
2016 - 267 yds
2015 - 314 yds (with Matthew Jordan at QB, Patrick Skov at BB, and freshman Clinton Lynch and defensive back Lynn Griffin at A-back)
2014 - 318 yds
2013 - 335 yds

Passing/Rushing splits vs Miami
2013 - 66/335 -- LOSS
2014 - 53/318 -- WIN
2015 - 59/314 -- LOSS
2016 - 94/267 -- LOSS
2017 - 55/226 -- LOSS

When you rush it as often as we do (every single one of those games was at least 55 rushing attempts), 267 and 226 yards is nothing to brag about. With the exception of 2014, our one-dimensional offense was mostly stifled and ultimately could not keep up with the Canes' offense.

And with maybe the exception of 2017, none of these Miami teams were particularly good.

I don't think we're outscheming anyone anymore. But if you run the ball 60+ times/game, you will ultimately pile up rushing yards.

Let's look at VPI since 2013
Pass/Rush splits:
2013 144/129 <--not a typo
2014 125/250
2015 97/161 <--not a typo
2016 34/309
2017 140/261

With the glaring outlier exception of Matthew Jordan's midline domination, VPI has mostly throttled the CPJ scheme for the past 5 years and it's the same going back from that. Until they got rid of Beamer, Foster's boys had CPJ's number though our D has always played well against them, a strange outlier in and of itself.

I don't have time to do it, but if you look at UGA, FSU, or VPI games you'll see more of the same, including some 400+ yard games. I know specifically that we rushed for 400 yards three times against UGA. That is absurd. How the öööö is that possible if they are so much more talented than us (which I agree that they are)? It's because we routinely outscheme their defense with our offense. We still lose the game because we manage to öööö it up elsewhere, but that's another story altogether.

Basically we've got 99 problems, but using the option to create favorable blocking matchups ain't one.

No argument about how we manage to lose games but with VPI and Miami, it's not accurate to say that we're outscheming them. The upset of FSU in 2015 sure as hell didn't have 400 yards of offense by either team.

We ran it for 400 against mutts in 08, 10, and 14. 2 of those teams had historic talent on our O. We've not been close to that number the other 7 times.

I agree that the option to create favorable matchups is far down the list of problems we're facing though. ST in general need more attention than anything in this thread.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

Isn't it the OP's point that all three of the plays in the gifs are the same play, run with varying degrees of success?

2 of the 3 plays are stuffed for big losses behind the LOS. Not sure how they can be called successful.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

All 3 are the same play. And they're all counters. The a-back motion is to the opposite side than the play is run.

right and my suggestion was...rather than run straight into a crowd of 6 Defenders crashing the backfield, perhaps you fake that counter and go right. That was my 'suggestion', such as it were.

The fact that this play got blown the öööö up at least twice by USF doesn't bode well for it working against the more-talented teams on our schedule.

 

[18in32]

2 of the 3 plays are stuffed for big losses behind the LOS. Not sure how they can be called successful.

Seems like you made a simple mistake. No big deal.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

Seems like you made a simple mistake. No big deal.

what mistake?

Did I miss something? The first 2 videos are losses of yards and there are more green shirts in the backfield than white ones. Why are you all calling these plays 'successful'?

My suggestion was...rather than run squarely into 6 unblocked defenders, run the other way. The mistake was in the execution of that play, not by the guy who watched it and cringed.

 

[18in32]

I was referring to the non-counter play- the one that gets stuffed in the first 2 videos.

You said the play in the first two gifs ain't a counter. It is. They're all the same counter.

 

[killerB]

The fact that this play got blown the öööö up at least twice by USF doesn't bode well for it working against the more-talented teams on our schedule.

Not working twice against USF is only indicative of if not working twice against USF. There are a thousand variables for whether or not it works against teams in the future. It also sets up other plays and if you take a loss on this play but the play it sets up is successful, it's worth it.

 

[18in32]

what mistake?

Did I miss something? The first 2 videos are losses of yards and there are more green shirts in the backfield than white ones. Why are you all calling these plays 'successful'?

My suggestion was...rather than run squarely into 6 unblocked defenders, run the other way. The mistake was in the execution of that play, not by the guy who watched it and cringed.

Ain't nobody called them successful.

Dang, man, you ninja edit so fast it's hard to know what I'm responding to.

 

[ElCidBUZZingFAN]

I was referring to the non-counter play- the one that gets stuffed in the first 2 videos.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

You said the play in the first two gifs ain't a counter. It is. They're all the same counter.

it's not a true counter though. The back who got the ball never countered - he was always going left with the play, which is probably why USF defends it so well. The back who laughably fakes right and almost falls down all 3 times doesn't get the ball nor appears to be an option to get it at all. The linemen appear to kinda move right in one of the plays but get beat pretty badly in almost all 3 plays so it's hard to tell. Most indicative is the fact that no SFU player buys any sort of fake right - they just destroy the LOS twice and we finally put helmets to pads in the 3rd one. Thanks, Sewak.

 

[johncu]

Passing/Rushing splits vs Miami
2013 - 66/335 -- LOSS
2014 - 53/318 -- WIN
2015 - 59/314 -- LOSS
2016 - 94/267 -- LOSS
2017 - 55/226 -- LOSS

When you rush it as often as we do (every single one of those games was at least 55 rushing attempts), 267 and 226 yards is nothing to brag about. With the exception of 2014, our one-dimensional offense was mostly stifled and ultimately could not keep up with the Canes' offense.

And with maybe the exception of 2017, none of these Miami teams were particularly good.

I don't think we're outscheming anyone anymore. But if you run the ball 60+ times/game, you will ultimately pile up rushing yards.

Giving up 300 rushing yards/game is absolutely not stifling anything. We nearly beat Miami in 2017, and it sure as hell wasn't because of passing, defense, or special teams. That leaves rushing offense. It wasn't a stellar performance, but if that's the worst game we've had against them, I'll take it.

Let's look at VPI since 2013
Pass/Rush splits:
2013 144/129 <--not a typo
2014 125/250
2015 97/161 <--not a typo
2016 34/309
2017 140/261

With the glaring outlier exception of Matthew Jordan's midline domination, VPI has mostly throttled the CPJ scheme for the past 5 years and it's the same going back from that. Until they got rid of Beamer, Foster's boys had CPJ's number though our D has always played well against them, a strange outlier in and of itself.

Bud Foster is an awesome DC - no bones about it. But we ran the ball adequately against them the last 4 years, except for 2015 when we were playing 5'8 white walkons at A-back. We also tend to have more passing balance against VT since they sell out so hard to stop our run, so our rushing numbers go down.

We ran it for 400 against mutts in 08, 10, and 14. 2 of those teams had historic talent on our O. We've not been close to that number the other 7 times.

Agreed, but our "historic talent" is still not even close to on par with UGA's talent any of those years except MAYBE 2008. The only way we put up those type of numbers is a massive schematic advantage. UGA seems to have finally reached elite status, so we're gonna need that schematic advantage if we want to compete this year.

 

[johncu]

The point is that we've had PLENTY of offensive success against teams that have far more talent than us. It's not fair at all to say we can't move the ball against them. And if we can't, it's because it's really hard to overcome talent advantages that are that significant.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

The point is that we've had PLENTY of offensive success against teams that have far more talent than us. It's not fair at all to say we can't move the ball against them. And if we can't, it's because it's really hard to overcome talent advantages that are that significant.

I guess it comes down to the word 'Plenty'. Statistically, the success has actually been very limited after about 2010, as have the Ws against those particularly-talented teams on our schedule. We're something like 35% Victory rate against the 4 teams you listed since 2013, with maybe 1 400-yard rushing game against any of them (mutts, 2014). Sorry but 226 yards rushing on 53 attempts isn't success - that sucks.

Sadly, lots of our fans appear to be content with a 35% success rate.

 

[18in32]

it's not a true counter though.

Whether they are 'true counters' or not... they're all the same play. Your comment did not recognize them as the same play. If you've got some argument that everyone else is misreading the gifs, and they aren't the same play, then make it. Otherwise, let's move on.