The prospect of an awful 2011 season

Yukonwreck said:
What? Are U saying Washington, Lyons, Hill, Isaiah Johnson, Peters, Walls, Barnes & Cross aren't as good? Seriously, is that what you're saying?
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To be fair, 2008 had ridiculous talent. I remember an ESPN article that had our DL pre-season ranked in the top 3 with USCw and LSU...can't remember if we were 1,2 or 3. Man, that was fun.
 
HelluvaMGTmjr said:
Remember Nesbitt, Dwyer, D. Thomas, M. Burnett, D. Morgan, D. Richard, Michael Johnson, Vance Walker?

Let's keep perspective.
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I call B.S.

We didn't realize how good many of those players were until after the 2008 season began.

2007 Nesbitt: Backup QB with great running skills but untested college passer.
2010 Days OR Tevin: Days is like Nesbitt in many ways, except redshirted due to depth (and kept it because we didn't want to waste it for 4 games) so no in-game experience. Tevin destroys Nesbitt's experience and familiarity with the offense.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Dwyer: Was pretty darn good even as a backup.
2010 Perkins: Redshirted due to depth. Not sure how good he will be but his expectations not as high as Dwyers were.

Advantage: 2007

2007 Thomas: #2 Receiver with about 500 yards. Solid, but untested as the go-to guy. Recall that Thomas didn't even blow up until the 2009 season.
2010 Hill: #1 Receiver with about 300 yards. Tested as the go-to guy but struggled. Can only improve and just needs to find the mental aspect of his game. Heard great things about him as far as being in the film and weight rooms a lot in the off season.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Burnett: True freshman that managed to work his way into the rotation and snatch a couple interceptions.
2010 Isaiah Johnson: Almost identical situation. True freshman with potential that grabbed and int and started at the beginning of the season.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Morgan: True freshman that was backup and had no sacks.
2010 Cross: Sophomore starter with 2.5 sacks and played pretty well. Should be even better in the second year in the defense.

Advantage: 2010

2007 Michael Johnson: Athletic freak that came in as a pass rusher but didn't really have the size to handle run blocking. 21 total tackles.
2010 Jason Peters: Solid defensive lineman that could get off a block and make a tackle at the LOS. 52 total tackles. A very different player than Johnson (who would probably be an OLB in the 3-4) but in his role his potential for the coming year is pretty good.

Advantage: Almost equal, but barely 2007

2007 Richard AND Walker: Two very solid defensive tackles that can plug up the middle.
2007 Walls OR Barnes: Walls has their experience and Barnes has their potential, but neither performed as well as them in 2007.

Advantage: 2007
 
HelluvaMGTmjr said:
To be fair, 2008 had ridiculous talent. I remember an ESPN article that had our DL pre-season ranked in the top 3 with USCw and LSU...can't remember if we were 1,2 or 3. Man, that was fun.
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Our 2011 DL looks to be pretty good. Not as good as 2008, but pretty good.
 
The Jacket said:
Obviously we all had pretty high expectations for the last two years. But this year we are coming off of a season where we realized that the bulk of the team simply wasn't great. And we lost a lot of the guys who were talented. Of course, all of that has been said a million times but the point is this..

If you had to bet the farm on whether this year would be:
A) Awful - a record below .500, a loss to UGAg, no bowl
B) A season better than that in any way

Of course, everyone will have their own idea of what constitutes a truly awful season. My main interest is in how many people are confident in the idea that we'll perform better than what I described above.

No, there's no poll coming. Hiyo, etc.
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It is true that we have the fewest starters of any ACC team and that it would appear to be a classic rebuilding year. However, if there was ever a schedule set up to give your offense time to gain confidence this one should do it. I go with "B" on that basis and the feeling I get that we will be a whole lot better than the pundits seem to think.
 
MtownJacket said:
I call B.S.

We didn't realize how good many of those players were until after the 2008 season began.

2007 Nesbitt: Backup QB with great running skills but untested college passer.
2010 Days OR Tevin: Days is like Nesbitt in many ways, except redshirted due to depth (and kept it because we didn't want to waste it for 4 games) so no in-game experience. Tevin destroys Nesbitt's experience and familiarity with the offense.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Dwyer: Was pretty darn good even as a backup.
2010 Perkins: Redshirted due to depth. Not sure how good he will be but his expectations not as high as Dwyers were.

Advantage: 2007

2007 Thomas: #2 Receiver with about 500 yards. Solid, but untested as the go-to guy. Recall that Thomas didn't even blow up until the 2009 season.
2010 Hill: #1 Receiver with about 300 yards. Tested as the go-to guy but struggled. Can only improve and just needs to find the mental aspect of his game. Heard great things about him as far as being in the film and weight rooms a lot in the off season.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Burnett: True freshman that managed to work his way into the rotation and snatch a couple interceptions.
2010 Isaiah Johnson: Almost identical situation. True freshman with potential that grabbed and int and started at the beginning of the season.

Advantage: Equal

2007 Morgan: True freshman that was backup and had no sacks.
2010 Cross: Sophomore starter with 2.5 sacks and played pretty well. Should be even better in the second year in the defense.

Advantage: 2010

2007 Michael Johnson: Athletic freak that came in as a pass rusher but didn't really have the size to handle run blocking. 21 total tackles.
2010 Jason Peters: Solid defensive lineman that could get off a block and make a tackle at the LOS. 52 total tackles. A very different player than Johnson (who would probably be an OLB in the 3-4) but in his role his potential for the coming year is pretty good.

Advantage: Almost equal, but barely 2007

2007 Richard AND Walker: Two very solid defensive tackles that can plug up the middle.
2007 Walls OR Barnes: Walls has their experience and Barnes has their potential, but neither performed as well as them in 2007.

Advantage: 2007
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Well, I like your effort here, but I disagree on some, so here are my thoughts...

QB: As much as it pains me to say, I think the QBs are equal...though, we all knew JN was a helluva runner going in to 2008, the same could be said for Days. EQUAL

Running Back: Dwyer had a phenomenal freshman year and could've started over Choice in my opinion. I knew he was going to be a stud from just his first few carries vs. ND. Perkins has not even had a collegiate carry (vs. JD's 9 TDs and 5.5 YPC avg and start vs. VT) and Lyons isn't even in the picture. BIG ADVANTAGE 2007

WR: 2010 Hill was extremely dissapointing, I can't even call him a #1, we have no #1...a whopping 15 receptions for 291 yards in 2010 vs. Thomas's 2007 stats of 35 rec for 558 yards.
ADVANTAGE 2007

Safety: Morgan had a great year in 2007, he impressed the hell out of me and I knew pretty quick he was going to be special as I assume many did. Had 57 total tackles with 3 Ints. Johnson looks the part but didn't stand out qutie as much as Morgan did but had a respectable 47 total tackles but only 1 int. Definitely some potential there but not so much as I saw in Morgan.
ADVANTAGE 2007

DL: I am going to lump this unit together. As I recalled earlier, the 2008 DL was pre-ranked by ESPN or whoever as one of the best DL in the country (maybe I am the only one that remembers this or I am making it up?) The 2010 DL was mediocre AT BEST. But of course, the 3-4 is a different animal than the 4-3...but still...we knew we had a very good DL going in to 2008.
ADVANTAGE 2007

Just my opinion.
 
If we play average and I mean just average defense with our program vs others,we start at six games and go up. Teams that have good programs and good athletes will be tossups.VT,Ga,Clemins and NC can be rough due to where we play them and how well they are playing when we play them.I think seven or eight wins and one of them being a win over the puppies would be a great season.
 
HelluvaMGTmjr said:
Well, I like your effort here, but I disagree on some, so here are my thoughts...

QB: As much as it pains me to say, I think the QBs are equal...though, we all knew JN was a helluva runner going in to 2008, the same could be said for Days. EQUAL

Running Back: Dwyer had a phenomenal freshman year and could've started over Choice in my opinion. I knew he was going to be a stud from just his first few carries vs. ND. Perkins has not even had a collegiate carry (vs. JD's 9 TDs and 5.5 YPC avg and start vs. VT) and Lyons isn't even in the picture. BIG ADVANTAGE 2007

WR: 2010 Hill was extremely dissapointing, I can't even call him a #1, we have no #1...a whopping 15 receptions for 291 yards in 2010 vs. Thomas's 2007 stats of 35 rec for 558 yards.
ADVANTAGE 2007
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07 Thomas catches/10 Hill catches: 2.33
07 Thomas yards/10 Hill yards: 1.92
07 total attempts/10 total attempts: 2.16

Seeing a trend? Playing in a pro-style offense does in fact affect a receiver's stats. In 2008 we had no idea Thomas was going to turn into the beast he became.

And most of those advantages you threw in there are self admittedly slight.

HelluvaMGTmjr said:
Remember, pass it to the left and don't forget to inhale.

Seriously, you can't be serious? 32% of our players in 2008 made it to the NFL. 'Nuff said.
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And you have no idea how many on this team will make it to the NFL.

I actually think this team parallels 2008 in many ways, as has already been discussed on this board. Low expectations, chip on their shoulder, and favorable schedule.

I think we can get 9 wins again.
 
Maybe if Stephen Hill could get some illegal gifts sent his way, his play would improve.
 
MtownJacket said:
07 Thomas catches/10 Hill catches: 2.33
07 Thomas yards/10 Hill yards: 1.92
07 total attempts/10 total attempts: 2.16

Seeing a trend? Playing in a pro-style offense does in fact affect a receiver's stats. In 2008 we had no idea Thomas was going to turn into the beast he became.

And most of those advantages you threw in there are self admittedly slight.



And you have no idea how many on this team will make it to the NFL.

I actually think this team parallels 2008 in many ways, as has already been discussed on this board. Low expectations, chip on their shoulder, and favorable schedule.

I think we can get 9 wins again.
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2007 Thomas wins but not because he was screaming NFL potential (which you're right in that we didn't know yet) but because 2010 Hill was so underwhelming. I have very low expectations for Hill, not to be confused with high hopes.

The best way to gauge 2011 is by 2010, not by drawing comparisons to 2008 which was a ridiculous team. On paper, 2011's offense is clearly less talented than 2010. Can you argue with that? Now, maybe you feel like these unkown variables will end up being better than their 2010 counterparts, but that is conjecture that cannot be supported with meaningful facts. Given what we KNOW now, 2011 <2010 on offense. I think the defense is better for sure.

Yeah, we don't know how many on this team will make it to the NFL, but let's get real...it's not likely to be many. Definitely not 1/3. Hope I'm wrong.
 
that embedded video has a bunch of links to our offensive highlights against a bunch of teams from this past year...ugly ugly stuff
 
gte490v said:
6 wins is the worst case scenario for me:

Western Carolina, MTSU, Kansas, and Duke as wins, then splitting UNC, NCState, Maryland, Virginia.

Best case is probably 9 wins. So, most likely we'll be somewhere in the middle.

If we are below 0.500 with this schedule, we've got some real problems.
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I agree starting from "w" in "wins" in the first sentence till the "." at the end.

My worst case is 5 wins.
 
8-4, 2008-type season. A solid 7 as far as seasons go.

I just hope UGA is one of the 8 and not one of the 4. At this point, I would give up losses to Clemson, VPI and Miami in exchange for a UGA win.
 
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