No, no, you're right. It could happen. It could be that a great coach comes to Tech, fully cognizant of the unique challenges at Tech, is committed to stay and build a championship program, and does so from the very beginning, and never has a two-year hiccup that would get him fired prematurely. It could happen.
Where would you put the chances? If Gailey is fired now, what are the chances the next coach at Tech is that guy? I think if you're honest, it's pretty small. Remember, say what you want about GT's potential, it is not a powerhouse now, and we're competing for new coaches against schools that are. Michigan and Nebraska for sure, and Arkansas if you want to put them in that category. So like it or not, we're getting third- or fourth-best already, and the coaching carousel has only begun.
So what are the chances the next guy at Tech is the coach I described? Ten percent? Personally, I think that's generous, but let's say ten percent.
Now what are the chances he's not? What are the chances he's the next Charlie Weis, or the next Bill Calahan, or the next Jim Donnan, or the next Greg Robinson? Or the next Bill Lewis? Not necessarily the worst coach ever, but not equipped to win consistently at a place like Tech. I invite you to make your own guess, but I put our chances at missing on the next hire at 60%.
So, just crazy wild guess numbers here, but I would break it down:
10% - Hes the next Urban Meyer, GT is MNC in three years.
30% - He's not a marked improvement, but not a disaster either. We're right back in the same spot in four years.
60% - He's in over his head, and we're back to sucking. The next coach comes in with the cupboard empty.
So yes, I'll agree, it could be that the only thing standing between GT and greatness is Chan Gailey. It could also be (and is more likey, IMO) that the only thing standing between GT and true mediocrity (losing records, no bowl, no wins over ranked teams) is, yes, Chan Gailey.
The odds themselves don't scare me. If we already sucked, then hey, what would we have to lose? UNC and NCState and Wake Forest and Kentucky and Vandy had nowhere to go but up. They gambled and took they're chances, because why not?
But we don't suck. We've got a good team, with a great defense and an awesome running back. We beat good teams, and recruit well. We could go up, but we could also go a long way down. To me, the odds aren't worth it.