Tough Day for the CPJ Supporters/Haters

[TampaBayJacket]

I don't think CPJ did anything to lose the game but he made fewer bad calls than Bronco.

1. Why did UVA not try to score at the end of the 1st half? They got the ball with 3 TOs and basically sat on it.

2. 3rd and 1 in the red zone with 30 seconds left...why throw a pass into the end zone into double coverage? Terrible play call by Bronco.

Also UVA kicking the game tying FG on 4th and 1 too despite us showing no ability to stop their runs or short passing game in the 4th quarter. I was so relieved when they kicked because 4th and 1 felt automatic had they gone for it (and not do anything stupid like they just did on 3rd and 1).

 

[18in32]

JT and Nesbitt represent more than half our seasons at QB, right? So it doesn't seem too rare, unless the argument is that CPJ couldn't have gotten Nesbitt himself.

JT and Nesbitt are five full seasons. This is CPJ’s 11th year.

And Tevin was a fine QB. But he had the misfortune to have Al Groh as DC.

 

[ciegetanks]

I wish that the D-line didn't fall for the fake/delay spike at the end of regulation.

In my dreams I see Branch flattening Perkins while he's looking at the receiver, then laying on him to kill the clock.

UVA loses within sight of OT because Bronco tried to be too smart for his own good.

Even so it did work out in the end.

 

[johncu]

We usually DON'T have a better QB. Out current QB is pretty much standard. Do the math. Vad was a bad QB that would have completed a few more passes. JT and Nesbitt are rare.

I completely disagree that Marshall is standard. Maybe as a runner, but not at all as a passer. 5.5 out of 11 seasons have had Nesbitt or Thomas at QB. That's not a rarity. I'd argue that Tevin was better than Marshall (better reads, better at midline, and more consistent passing) as well.

I'm not interested in judging our future outlook with a limited QB in mind. We need to have a better QB - this coming from a huge CPJ supporter. TaQuon Marshall is a warrior and I'm proud he's at GT, but that should not be the standard for a QB. If we stick with Paul Johnson for the future, it's with the expectation that he will bring in a QB that can make those throws in addition to running the option. I'm thinking that one of the guys already on the roster will be that QB.

 

[andrew]

JT and Nesbitt are five full seasons. This is CPJ’s 11th year.

And Tevin was a fine QB. But he had the misfortune to have Al Groh as DC.

I don't think it's fair to not count Nesbitt's last season at all.

But even so, I think my point still stands -- it's not rare to have someone of their caliber, so far it's happened about half the time for us.

 

[G776T]

I don't think it's fair to not count Nesbitt's last season at all.

But even so, I think my point still stands -- it's not rare to have someone of their caliber, so far it's happened about half the time for us.

And that quality QB is 3-2 vs uga, 2 aaccg appearances, one win, and 2 Orange bowl appearances, one win. Here's hoping Graham continues the trend.

 

[johncu]

And that quality QB is 3-2 vs uga, 2 aaccg appearances, one win, and 2 Orange bowl appearances, one win. Here's hoping Graham continues the trend.

I think this post says it all.

 

[18in32]

I think this post says it all.

What it says is that we're wrong to think QB has been the problem in CPJ's tenure. Tevin, Vad and TQM have all been good enough to make the offense go. I agree Nesbitt and Thomas were better, but they had plenty of bad games, too. If we're trying to dissect why things haven't always gone the way we want them to in CPJ's tenure, way more blame should go to the line play, the downfield blocks, the secondary, etc. etc.

 

[MeatWrench]

I think this post says it all.

Does not compute: No mention of Budweiser.

 

[BainbridgeJacket]

What it says is that we're wrong to think QB has been the problem in CPJ's tenure. Tevin, Vad and TQM have all been good enough to make the offense go. I agree Nesbitt and Thomas were better, but they had plenty of bad games, too. If we're trying to dissect why things haven't always gone the way we want them to in CPJ's tenure, way more blame should go to the line play, the downfield blocks, the secondary, etc. etc.

Tevin doesn't get enough respect around here. In a lot of respects, he was the best QB we've had. He just seemed to fold like a lawn chair under pressure. It's pretty safe to say that TQM and Vad have been the worst QBs we've had based on eye test alone. We aren't doing many things well on offense this year. We've won 6 of the last seven, though, so I suppose our ineffectiveness can be glossed over.

 

[SeppGT]

If CPJ would just put in a shotgun passing package for 3rd and long, end of half and game, when the 3O is just not working or just to make the defense back off a bit, I would be fully on board.

Why? Anyone remember the UNC game a few years back with a 2 minute passing offense from our normal set?

That little experiment with Vad cost us. How many games, honestly guys, did making pass attempts screw us up instead of just running a couple dives to get to the sticks against a D expecting obvious passes.

Either way...there is zero need for a shotgun set.

 

[18in32]

We aren't doing many things well on offense this year. We've won 6 of the last seven, though, so I suppose our ineffectiveness can be glossed over.

That just shows to go ya what incredible standards for offense CPJ has set around here. Per footballoutsiders.com, our rank this year is as follows in each of their nine categories of offensive effectiveness.

#10 – Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position.
#11 – OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
#14 – Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
# 6– Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
#14 – First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
#5 – Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
#7 – Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
#11 – Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.

The only one where suck is – of course – turnovers...
#88 – Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

On balance I'd say things are going pretty well on offense this year.

 

[johncu]

What it says is that we're wrong to think QB has been the problem in CPJ's tenure. Tevin, Vad and TQM have all been good enough to make the offense go. I agree Nesbitt and Thomas were better, but they had plenty of bad games, too. If we're trying to dissect why things haven't always gone the way we want them to in CPJ's tenure, way more blame should go to the line play, the downfield blocks, the secondary, etc. etc.

But that's not what the results say. If we agree that Nesbitt and Thomas were "great" players and our other QBs weren't, this is what the records say:

Records with a great QB:
9-4
11-3
11-3
3-9
9-4

Records without a great QB:
6-7
8-5
7-7
7-6
5-6
7-4* (not counted in averages)

So every single season with Nesbitt/Thomas was better than every single season without them, with the crazy injury season of 2015 as the sole outlier. Other than that one weird season, we AVERAGE 10 wins a year with a great QB. That's ööööing crazy, IMO, especially since neither of those guys were elite talents. They were just very good college players. If James Graham (or Oliver, Johnson, Yates, etc.) is that type of player, we'll be winning 10 games again.

 

[yellowbritchies]

Those were option plays that UVA just blew up. Bronco did a damn good job of preparing their defense. They clearly made it a priority not to give up anything on the perimeter and we couldn't get enough of a push to make up for it with the dive. Honestly I think without some creative playcalling and our improved special teams, we lose this one by 14-21 points. But like I said, I'll take this over putting up 600+ yards of offense and losing.





Yeah, Bronco made some headscratching calls. CPJ would NEVER have kicked that FG that Bronco did to tie the game at 24. IMO that was a weak call on 4th down when you've got a QB that is fast and strong and should easily be able to pick up the first. The 3rd down fade that you reference was almost as dumb. Perkins was tearing us apart with the short pass - why even try to go deep?

You are correct, that call won us the game eventually.

 

[yellowbritchies]

That just shows to go ya what incredible standards for offense CPJ has set around here. Per footballoutsiders.com, our rank this year is as follows in each of their nine categories of offensive effectiveness.

#10 – Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position.
#11 – OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
#14 – Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
# 6– Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
#14 – First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
#5 – Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
#7 – Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
#11 – Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.

The only one where suck is – of course – turnovers...
#88 – Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

On balance I'd say things are going pretty well on offense this year.

Nothing more than a pretty bow on an empty package. Tech still has 4 losses, unfortunately soon to be 5 to the one team I really,really hate.

 

[yellowbritchies]

Then if there is no remedy, why not cancel the series? Do to Georgia what we once did to the SEC. Say bye bye. I've been watching for 60 years. That doesn't make me an expert, but things are as bad as they have been the last 20 years relative to competing with Georgia. It is not all recruiting.

The day that any Tech AD cancels the ugay series, I'm done with them.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

That just shows to go ya what incredible standards for offense CPJ has set around here. Per footballoutsiders.com, our rank this year is as follows in each of their nine categories of offensive effectiveness.

#10 – Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position.
#11 – OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
#14 – Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
# 6– Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
#14 – First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
#5 – Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
#7 – Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
#11 – Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.

The only one where suck is – of course – turnovers...
#88 – Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

On balance I'd say things are going pretty well on offense this year.

And yet, we only beat one team as good as we are (UVA), which was the highest-ranked team we faced at #48.

The D cannot be blamed for the losses to PITT and Duke.

 

[andrew]

That just shows to go ya what incredible standards for offense CPJ has set around here. Per footballoutsiders.com, our rank this year is as follows in each of their nine categories of offensive effectiveness.

#10 – Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position.
#11 – OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
#14 – Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
# 6– Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
#14 – First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
#5 – Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
#7 – Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
#11 – Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.

The only one where suck is – of course – turnovers...
#88 – Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

On balance I'd say things are going pretty well on offense this year.

Any chance you have those numbers for conference games only? I feel like our offense has been pretty lackluster against ACC competition this season.

 

[18in32]

Any chance you have those numbers for conference games only? I feel like our offense has been pretty lackluster against ACC competition this season.

Nope... but why is that relevant? Everybody plays "cupcakes," and these numbers include adjustments for the strength of opposing teams' defense.

 

[18in32]

And yet, we only beat one team as good as we are (UVA), which was the highest-ranked team we faced at #48.

The D cannot be blamed for the losses to PITT and Duke.

Hey, man, I don't make up the stats. Just reporting what unbiased observers think about our offense this year.