Tough Day for the CPJ Supporters/Haters

18in32 said:
Nope... but why is that relevant? Everybody plays "cupcakes," and these numbers include adjustments for the strength of opposing teams' defense.
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Because (and this is 100% speculation here) I feel like our offense may be much more variant than others in terms of beating up on weak competition while faltering against stronger competition. Even if our offense is mediocre, give us a cupcake and we can throw up 60. But then put us up against a good defense and those same players might only put up a couple TDs. That wasn't the case with, say, Gailey's offense.

Again, just speculation based on watching, which is why I asked for the numbers.
 
johncu said:
But that's not what the results say. If we agree that Nesbitt and Thomas were "great" players and our other QBs weren't, this is what the records say:

Records with a great QB:
9-4
11-3
11-3
3-9
9-4

Records without a great QB:
6-7
8-5
7-7
7-6
5-6
7-4* (not counted in averages)

So every single season with Nesbitt/Thomas was better than every single season without them, with the crazy injury season of 2015 as the sole outlier. Other than that one weird season, we AVERAGE 10 wins a year with a great QB. That's ööööing crazy, IMO, especially since neither of those guys were elite talents. They were just very good college players. If James Graham (or Oliver, Johnson, Yates, etc.) is that type of player, we'll be winning 10 games again.
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But re-run that with good DC's/bad DC's... or good OL's/bad OL's... or good WR's/bad WR's... etc. It is going to track pretty closely what we think about our QB's. It's a chicken/egg problem.
 
andrew said:
Because (and this is 100% speculation here) I feel like our offense may be much more variant than others in terms of beating up on weak competition while faltering against stronger competition. Even if our offense is mediocre, give us a cupcake and we can throw up 60. But then put us up against a good defense and those same players might only put up a couple TDs. That wasn't the case with, say, Gailey's offense.

Again, just speculation based on watching, which is why I asked for the numbers.
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Right... which is why I already responded to that concern by pointing out that these numbers include one specifically calculated by reference to the strength of the opposing team's defense.
 
18in32 said:
That just shows to go ya what incredible standards for offense CPJ has set around here. Per footballoutsiders.com, our rank this year is as follows in each of their nine categories of offensive effectiveness.

#10 – Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position.
#11 – OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
#14 – Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
# 6– Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
#14 – First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
#5 – Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
#7 – Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
#11 – Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.

The only one where suck is – of course – turnovers...
#88 – Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

On balance I'd say things are going pretty well on offense this year.
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Yards/game #39
4D conversion % #68
RZ scoring % #79
Of course, there's the passing stats, yards/penalty, and the ever important just watching the game cases that can be made.
 
BainbridgeJacket said:
Yards/game #39
4D conversion % #68
RZ scoring % #79
Of course, there's the passing stats, yards/penalty, and the ever important just watching the game cases that can be made.
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Sounds like there are a bunch of cases to be made. If you prefer 4D conversion over OFEI... not much else to say.
 
18in32 said:
But re-run that with good DC's/bad DC's... or good OL's/bad OL's... or good WR's/bad WR's... etc. It is going to track pretty closely what we think about our QB's. It's a chicken/egg problem.
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I don't think those numbers are as significant. Shaq Mason is the best OL we have had, and he was at GT for 4 years. We won 8, 7, and 7 games his first 3 years, and 11 his 4th. Justin Thomas was the difference. We won 11 and 9 games early in Roof's tenure, but after Thomas left we won 5 games and Roof got fired.
 
johncu said:
I don't think those numbers are as significant. Shaq Mason is the best OL we have had, and he was at GT for 4 years. We won 8, 7, and 7 games his first 3 years, and 11 his 4th. Justin Thomas was the difference. We won 11 and 9 games early in Roof's tenure, but after Thomas left we won 5 games and Roof got fired.
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Well I definitely agree that one OL is not as significant as one QB.
 
BainbridgeJacket said:
I prefer wins, but my point about facing too many 4th downs seems to be lost on you.
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Where did you make a point about the number of fourth downs we faced?

PS. Nevermind. I'm definitely lost. And happy to stay that way.
 
18in32 said:
Where did you make a point about the number of fourth downs we faced?

PS. Nevermind. I'm definitely lost. And happy to stay that way.
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Ignorance is bliss if you have found a way to celebrate this year as an offensive success.

P.S. we scored one touchdown on offense Saturday.
 
andrew said:
Because (and this is 100% speculation here) I feel like our offense may be much more variant than others in terms of beating up on weak competition while faltering against stronger competition. Even if our offense is mediocre, give us a cupcake and we can throw up 60. But then put us up against a good defense and those same players might only put up a couple TDs. That wasn't the case with, say, Gailey's offense.

Again, just speculation based on watching, which is why I asked for the numbers.
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It’s not speculation. We’re 3-10 against ranked opponents since the 2014 Orange Bowl game.
 
18in32 said:
Then we're well on our way to consensus. Which is the goal of the internet, right?
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High-Five.jpg
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
Why does it have to be so extreme when the offense is discussed? No one who debates it thinks it sucks. Why does any sort of observable criticism about its performance against decent teams trigger such angry reactions from some of those fans who love it?
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3,o0o posts but still new to the internet. Weird.
 
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