We’re A 7 Point Underdog At Wake Forest …

BigDanT said:
That’s not a misconception at all. Yes the casino covers bets. The whole idea is to win in the long run. They took a bath on Colorado but typically they move lines to cover their position. But in essence the casino is hedging whatever bet by encouraging where the money goes.
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if people think a gambling establishment is setting bad lines, they will stop using it.
 
Buzzkill1974 said:
Again, this is 100% false. The lines are made in seconds and never take public perception into account. The media and recency bias do more for Vegas than any amount of handicapping the public opinion ever could. With a 10% cushion built in, they will never lose in the long run despite the occasional bath. The Sharps move the lines upon release on Sunday and/or within the closing hours of kickoff. The time between is the public at large. The TCU game had next to nothing to do with the line against Nebraska, but each game into the season gives more weight to recently played games, but never consider public opinion or even betting upon release of the initial line. Not even a little bit.
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Books absolutely move lines if most of the bets are on one side. The 10% cushion means they always win yes.
 
BigDanT said:
What’s the second best team in the SEC west?
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I see 3 secw teams ranked (12,13,15). Only one of them has beaten a ranked team. Two of them have beaten a P5 team (by similar margins). Clearly, Ole Miss could not compete with those teams.
 
Doesn't surprise me in the least. Wake has been to 6 bowls in a row, plus one ACC CG, since 2016. Probably the best run in their history. Their records over that time are:
2022: 8-5
2021: 11-3
2020: 4-5
2019: 8-5
2018: 7-6
2017: 8-5
2016: 7-6

We last played them in 2017 and before that in 2010. For some reason, we've probably played Wake the least of any team in conference over the last decade.
 
at this point, syracuse has a more impressive resume. weak forest would be a pretty painful loss, must win situation imo
 
BigDanT said:
I don’t like it but I understand it. These betting lines aren’t made to represent accurate predictions of scores either. They are made to produce equivalent betting on either side of the line. We aren’t better against the house. The goal of the house is not to bets against us, the goal of the house is the facilitating of a bet against each other for a fee.
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Biggest myth in the history of gambling. The lines are made to capitalize on the fact that over 70% of bets are favorites and overs while not letting sharps capitalize on the dogs and unders. With 70%+ action on a 50/50 prop, they're cleaning up and could give a damn about 50/50 action.
 
BigDanT said:
Wonder why. I was told they don’t take into account public thoughts/bets and that the line moves very little.
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I don't think there's any way bets moved it that much that fast. I wonder if Wake QB is out. He went down last week.
 
What are our goals?
Undefeated - Out
Natl. Championship - Out
Conf. Championship - Out
Bowl Game - still attainable

This is a must win if we want to go bowling. With a loss then all we're working towards is developing for next season. I would hate to throw in the towel after 4 games.


The over-under is 60.5. Looks like they're expecting a shoot out.
 
Clifflives10 said:
What are our goals?
Undefeated - Out
Natl. Championship - Out
Conf. Championship - Out
Bowl Game - still attainable

This is a must win if we want to go bowling. With a loss then all we're working towards is developing for next season. I would hate to throw in the towel after 4 games.


The over-under is 60.5. Looks like they're expecting a shoot out.
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Pretty easy guess considering Tech’s D.
 
Clifflives10 said:
What are our goals?
Undefeated - Out
Natl. Championship - Out
Conf. Championship - Out
Bowl Game - still attainable

This is a must win if we want to go bowling. With a loss then all we're working towards is developing for next season. I would hate to throw in the towel after 4 games.


The over-under is 60.5. Looks like they're expecting a shoot out.
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This the ACC and we only have one conference loss. I'm not saying we have a team capable of getting there, but it isn't off the table until we're mathematically eliminated.
 
Conf championship isn’t out. 7-1 would probably get the #2 slot. But we aren’t going 7-1.

At the beginning of the season, I would have said the road to a bowl looked like this:
SCSt, BG, UVa - win 3 (currently 1-0)
Cuse, BC, UL - win 2 (currently 0-1)
Wake, unc, Miami - win 1 (currently 0-0)
Clem, Ole Miss, uga - win 0 (currently 0-1)

UL looks better than I expected, so does Cuse. Wake looks worse, so does BC,Clemson, and UVa.

A loss to Wake would seriously hurt, but even then a bowl wouldn’t be out of the question.
 
Looks like money was going with Tech and the 7 points because it’s dropped to 3.5. Ole Miss is a 7 point underdog to Bama. I’d have to go with Ole Miss and take the points. Bama’s offense is bad.
 
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