Reality Check: We're not as bad as some of you seem to think. In our losses to Miami, MTSU, and CU last year, we scored 36, 28, and 31 points. With a defense with a pulse, we should have been 10-4 last year. We lost to VPI by 3pts in overtime because our D gave up that last minute score in regulation. An 11-3 season last year would've been completely reasonable.
Moreover, we have every reason to expect a better D this year. Ignoring the D-performance against BOTH FSU and USC as just being the result of those offenses under-performing seems overly pessimistic to me. Also Roof has led great D turn-arounds at Duke and Minnesota. He kept a very good D as a very good D at Penn State. His D's at Auburn weren't great, but his worst D in 2011 was much better than Van Gorder's last year.
Our Offense should be better this year and certainly won't slide off much from last year. In other words, I can't see us being a worse team than the one that should've had 10 or 11 wins last year.
imo, the worst part of our schedule this year is the @d'oh U and @BYU back to back, especially right after VPI. If we played @BYU at any other time in our schedule, I agree with ibee that we shouldn't lose to them again. However, we haven't won in Miami since CPJ's been our coach. Either outcome in that game threatens emotional carry-over into BYU, not to mention that it'll probably be around midterms.
Worst: 8-4
I don't see us losing more than 2 ACC games (and I think winning them all is better than even). BYU and U[sic]GA both showed that they could keep our O from scoring last year, so I don't think we're favorites there.
Best: 10-2
As I've said, the two biggest question marks imo are U[sic]Ga and BYU. BYU shut us down, but that's the sort of loss CPJ typically doesn't let happen twice. We were able to move the ball early on U[sic]Ga but couldn't punch it in. If we have a decent short-field passing game, and a Defense that can get one or two stops, we might be able to change that. So I don't think either of those games should be seen as a complete write-off.
However, I don't think we're deep enough to run the table. I think we'll lose at least two. It could be BYU and U[sic]Ga, but it could be Syracuse and VPI.
Wild Cards:
1) Ted Roof: He was just in a 14-0 FBS locker room in 2010. He knows what they look like and may be helpful in keeping the right emotional pitch.
2) Vad Lee: Unlike TW and JN, Vad's an emotional, extrovert QB. He seems to be a team-guy but also a put-the-team on his back guy. He might be able to will some extra wins, see Tim Tebow.
3) Justin Thomas: Haven't seen enough to know his personality, but he seems like another quiet leader. However, he's also reportedly got break-out potential as both a runner and a passer. He might turn out to be a guy who can just get the job done, see Cam Newton (obviously not in exactly the same way given the size differential).
