coit
Bullseye
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007
- Messages
- 92,283
It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2023 PPP!
The season is just about 5 weeks away, and there's a new optimism for the future. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.
Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:
Game 01 - Louisville
Game 02 - SC State
Game 03 - Ole Miss
Game 04 - Wake Forest
Game 05 - Bowling Green
Game 06 - Miami
Game 07 - Boston College
Game 08 - UNC
Game 09 - Virginia
Game 10 - Clemson
Game 11 - Syracuse
Game 12 - UGA
---------------
In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.
The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems
1. TIA Score Weighting:
For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
2. GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:
Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.
3. GoGATech Raw Score:
This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.
This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.
The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.
If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.
2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/
2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/
2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
The season is just about 5 weeks away, and there's a new optimism for the future. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that.
Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:
Game 01 - Louisville
Game 02 - SC State
Game 03 - Ole Miss
Game 04 - Wake Forest
Game 05 - Bowling Green
Game 06 - Miami
Game 07 - Boston College
Game 08 - UNC
Game 09 - Virginia
Game 10 - Clemson
Game 11 - Syracuse
Game 12 - UGA
---------------
In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.
The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems
1. TIA Score Weighting:
For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
2. GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:
Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
- 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
- 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
- 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
- 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
- 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
- -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
- -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
- -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
- -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)
This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.
3. GoGATech Raw Score:
This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.
GGTRaw = GGTScore / TIAScore = (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)
This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.
The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.
If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.
2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/
2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/
2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
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