BOWLS

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I see this kind of thing way too often. I think their models suck.

Then again, it did take some weird things for Tulane to win. The USC returner dropping the ball out of bounds at the one. Which caused the safety. And the dropped pass right before the TD which, if caught, would have ended the game. Anyway, it was a fun watch.
 
I see this kind of thing way too often. I think their models suck.

Then again, it did take some weird things for Tulane to win. The USC returner dropping the ball out of bounds at the one. Which caused the safety. And the dropped pass right before the TD which, if caught, would have ended the game. Anyway, it was a fun watch.

I think there's observation bias at work here. Generally you only see these charts when something crazy happens. There's at least a thousand games a season, and the 99+ times that the team favored by 99% win we don't see the chart.
 
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