It's not a question of if he's relatively likely, but is he more likely than 1 in 25,000? The payout is pretty good and betters are speculating he's likely enough to somehow flip the apple cart of the CFB landscape that it's a worthy risk.
I'd put $10 on it if I gambled, even though I think this will be a traim wreck. I find it more likely he has a 2nd purge in year 2 and some of the LV luggage gets lost to much griping by the media who pushed for NIL. Followed by Deion leaving when Shedeur's eligibility is up.