Expansion

05GTCorndog said:
How do you know the ACC doesn't have a plan? The plan could be to stand pat. There are moving pieces at play. You can't just add 2-3 garbage schools and then demand a renegotiation of the contract with ESPN to increase per school payout. Maybe the ACC did try to add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford (which would've been a 'big' move). Maybe ESPN wasn't onboard with throwing more money at the contract to make a move worthwhile. If ESPN is having financial struggles, why would they want to increase their ACC payout to more schools unless they were sure it would really increase the value of the contract. Perhaps the SEC and BigTen deals are way overvalued and come next re-up, the money starts to dry up if ESPN isn't writing massive checks. There could be a bubble that is about to burst.

Could the ACC have added UCF, Cincy and Houston two years ago? Probably. That move would've been laughed at when BigTen added USC and UCLA and SEC adding OU and Texas. There was no move to make for the ACC that really made sense. I'm fine not adding mediocre schools just to expand.
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I think it would have been ok to add USF. Black & Gold with 35,000 attractive individuals on campus! Better than the cowboy hats and boots of FSU
 
gtphd said:
Unless I'm missing something, they went from 14 * $30 = 420 to 12 * $23 = 276 --> $144m per year or $72m per school per year value.



Assuming an FSU is worth about the same as USCw, which coincidentally is the average B1G payout and probably what Fox offers. Using this guy's math it is basically break-even Total value of $72m implies away game value of $36m of value. The ACC pays out $37m this year.
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I thought the PAC had 12 members:

usc. ucla. ua. asu. ut. co. cal. stan. ou. osu. uw. wsu

then dropped down to 10 to get the 23M offer.

Edit:
I doubt fsu carries usc’s value. USC is hands down the best team in CA and commands the LA market. I bet usc carries twice the value of ucla. I could see FSU commanding a bigger value in the sec/big. Right now they have 2 big conference games a year (plus ND periodically).
 
WracerX said:
I thought the PAC had 12 members:

usc. ucla. ua. asu. ut. co. cal. stan. ou. osu. uw. wsu

then dropped down to 10 to get the 23M offer.

Edit:
I doubt fsu carries usc’s value. USC is hands down the best team in CA and commands the LA market. I bet usc carries twice the value of ucla. I could see FSU commanding a bigger value in the sec/big. Right now they have 2 big conference games a year (plus ND periodically).
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I'm getting confused as to who is moving from where to what. You're right.

Also, agree on USCw.
 
gtphd said:
Unless I'm missing something, they went from 14 * $30 = 420 to 12 * $23 = 276 --> $144m per year or $72m per school per year value.



Assuming an FSU is worth about the same as USCw, which coincidentally is the average B1G payout and probably what Fox offers. Using this guy's math it is basically break-even Total value of $72m implies away game value of $36m of value. The ACC pays out $37m this year.
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I can’t imagine ESPN doesn’t have a renegotiation clause in that contract if the membership changes. If FSU bolts, espn could drop the value significantly. If espn didn’t, then FSU could argue that breaking the gor didn’t material affect the acc.
 
JimmyMcJacket said:
Yes, ESPN has a contract with the ACC. That means they have to pay the ACC.
WracerX said:
I can’t imagine ESPN doesn’t have a renegotiation clause in that contract if the membership changes. If FSU bolts, espn could drop the value significantly. If espn didn’t, then FSU could argue that breaking the gor didn’t material affect the acc.
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There would likely be a lot of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul in all of this and there will almost certainly be lawsuits and settlements along the way. But the point remains that the calculus for FSU to get out of the conference, and the bill left for them to pay if they leave, is very likely to be much more manageable than what has been publicly speculated assuming the guy in the video has his facts straight.

Many have been assuming, including me, that FSU is just making bluster but they've got a team of expensive lawyers just like everyone else and I doubt they would be making the noise they have without a plan.

If FSU pulls the trigger, the domino's begin falling. FSU would likely not be the only program to bail. August 15 is the deadline to notify the conference. If nothing happens by August 15, perhaps we can put all of this to rest for a little while and maybe other solutions will emerge. That would be my preference.
 
The two conferences hold all the power unless schools say otherwise. Their end game is clear, for there to be only two conferences at the highest level of college football. They will not stand for three conferences to survive. But, their preferred timetable is torturous. They want to add a couple of schools of their choice every few years. Oregon and Washington forced the Big 10 to add more quickly than they preferred this year.

This slow pace insures their slices of the revenue pie do not decline in size for member schools. By about 2040 or 2045 they will be about finished. By then they will have about 32 to 36 teams per conference. Nothing can stop this sad and unfortunate slow process except if university presidents find their spines and refuse to be tempted by these two conferences or if the money stream should run dry.
 
WREKedinTexas said:
That is when I quit watching SEC and B1G football. Don't need it, don't want it, will not worry about it. Woke = BROKE, and this ESPN led assault on college sports is going to be one heck of a train wreck. We have yet to see the Securities and Exchange Commission, schools lawyering up and Congress get involved.
It's coming.
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The definition of "woke" has really expanded if it even covers conference realignment now.
 
77GTFan said:
The two conferences hold all the power unless schools say otherwise. Their end game is clear, for there to be only two conferences at the highest level of college football. They will not stand for three conferences to survive. But, their preferred timetable is torturous. They want to add a couple of schools of their choice every few years. Oregon and Washington forced the Big 10 to add more quickly than they preferred this year.

This slow pace insures their slices of the revenue pie do not decline in size for member schools. By about 2040 or 2045 they will be about finished. By then they will have about 32 to 36 teams per conference. Nothing can stop this sad and unfortunate slow process except if university presidents find their spines and refuse to be tempted by these two conferences or if the money stream should run dry.
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I don't think the B1G and SEC are in cahoots to make a two conference league. I think if the B1G can, it would make it a 1 conference league. If they can expand to the east coast down to Florida they will have the SEC boxed in. I can see the B1G seizing more market share to the point it has more payout than the SEC. At that point in the future I think the B1G could potentially cherry pick parts of the SEC like Texas A&M and maybe Texas, and maybe even Florida. Right now it looks like they are working together and to some extent they are; but long term there is no reason for the B1G to split the pie with the SEC when they can have the whole thing.
 
Buzzilla said:
And the conference sold them to ESPN which has them locked up until 2036.
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It’s 2 different contract for 2 different things.

1) Ownership of media rights (GOR)
2) Distribution of media rights (media deal with ESPN)


People really need to understand those fundamentals first and foremost to understand the true dynamics at work here.
 
Buzzilla said:
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"The two members of the disintegrating Pac-12 need 12 of the 15 members of the ACC to support their move. Four schools stood opposed when the issue was discussed Wednesday night, sources say: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State. Lacking the requisite numbers, sources say it is unlikely that the potential expansion of the league will be put to a formal vote.

Sources described ACC members Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech and Louisville as among the most vocal in advocating for the Cardinal and Golden Bears to join the league. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips has been leading the discussion, presenting financial and scheduling scenarios to the league members."
 
USCJacket said:
While Disney / ESPN have acquired all the rights to the SEC going forward, you might want to check again on what network is forking out the most $$$ in the game that is conference expansion….It’s Fox. Not ESPN.

The logistics of travel on SA’s for hoops, baseball, etc are not going to be change all that much compared to now. Online classes + tudors will always be there.
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THWG247 said:
Disney ain’t going broke dumbass
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www.forbes.com

The 4 Flops Of 2023 That Cost Disney $1 Billion

Disney has revealed that it spent $965 million on four of its most high-profile streaming and film flops this year.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
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