How NIL is changing recruiting

People talking about the gap between the haves and have nots tend to overlook all the inconvenient data.

Cincinnati just went to the CFP.

The richest program in the world (TX) has had four coaches in the last nine years.
 
18in32 said:
People talking about the gap between the haves and have nots tend to overlook all the inconvenient data.

Cincinnati just went to the CFP.

The richest program in the world (TX) has had four coaches in the last nine years.
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What you say is true. However, first year of NIL. 5 years from now you will see QBs committing to 3 years at the same school for 3 million $ contracts and the deep pocket schools will all be in the driver's seat.

I don't think this can sustain for decades but I also don't understand how pro players have 20mil/year contracts and a firefighter only makes 40k......but it keeps happening.
 
gambler said:
What you say is true. However, first year of NIL. 5 years from now you will see QBs committing to 3 years at the same school for 3 million $ contracts and the deep pocket schools will all be in the driver's seat.

I don't think this can sustain for decades but I also don't understand how pro players have 20mil/year contracts and a firefighter only makes 40k......but it keeps happening.
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Do you also not understand why Nick Saban and Dabo Sweeney make more than CGC? There’s a market! It takes a lot of firefighters to cover all the possible fires, but only a handful of QBs are needed to provide Americans with hours of weekly entertainment. So the demand dollars are concentrated. Since you’re part of that demand this should be pretty clear to you. After all, You’re not spending your free time posting about the changes in staffing down at the local fire house.
 
18in32 said:
Do you also not understand why Nick Saban and Dabo Sweeney make more than CGC? There’s a market! It takes a lot of firefighters to cover all the possible fires, but only a handful of QBs are needed to provide Americans with hours of weekly entertainment. So the demand dollars are concentrated. Since you’re part of that demand this should be pretty clear to you. After all, You’re not spending your free time posting about the changes in staffing down at the local fire house.
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I don't know about you, but I would absolutely be a social media menace if my tax dollars were paying local fire men a million dollars per year.
 
NIL is a workaround for the schools not paying the players directly.

You may have noticed that the football players are no longer bitching about not getting put on the payroll (while eating at the same training table as all the other athletes who never bitch about it).

Football is over. Fan interest will continue to plummet when the same 4 teams go to the playoffs every year. And 18in32 will eventually understand that Cincy's appearance this year will likely be the last time we see a program like that in the CFP as NIL allows certain programs to concentrate the wealth of athletic talent.

I remember when there was talk of expanding the CFP to 8 or 12 teams. There is no point any longer. College football is now the NFL with no salary cap.
 
wesleyd21 said:
Ratings are garbage. Not sure how large
Amounts of money keep Pouring in…


That’s a 10.4% drop in 5 years. I never thought I could NOT care about college football but it’s a totally different scene than the 80’s and 90’s.
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could have to do with the matchup though. Everybody expected Georgia to roll and unfortunately they did
 
00Burdell said:
NIL is a workaround for the schools not paying the players directly.

You may have noticed that the football players are no longer bitching about not getting put on the payroll (while eating at the same training table as all the other athletes who never bitch about it).

Football is over. Fan interest will continue to plummet when the same 4 teams go to the playoffs every year. And 18in32 will eventually understand that Cincy's appearance this year will likely be the last time we see a program like that in the CFP as NIL allows certain programs to concentrate the wealth of athletic talent.

I remember when there was talk of expanding the CFP to 8 or 12 teams. There is no point any longer. College football is now the NFL with no salary cap.
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People who think college football is dominated by a tiny handful of teams now... forget that college football has always been dominated by a tiny handful of teams. The teams change, with changing demographics, changing coaches, etc. But there's never been a time when dozens of teams were likely nat'l champ contenders every year.

Moreover, college football has been moving in a more and more egalitarian direction for decades. Fewer scholarships make it hard for powerhouses to stockpile talent. The transfer portal makes it harder for powerhouse to stockpile talent. Conference TV dollars are split evenly between schools, so we get as much money from Clemson dominating prime time as Clemson does. And it shows! A team made the playoff this year with a smaller athletic budget than us. Another team made the playoff this year despite starting the season unranked. Once upon a time that hardly every happened... For that matter, once upon a time, you had to finish #1 by the end of November to win it all. Now you just have to finished #4 by the end of November to have a chance to win it all.

The incredible success of crimson unicorn Nick Saban has totally altered everyone's perspective on CFB today. But it is hard to find anyone else comparable to him, at any other school. The closest are people like Mike Gundy and Kirk Ferentz. Otherwise the big name coaches fall prey to scandal, get hired away, burn out, etc. It's really hard to build a dynasty. The idea that they're all around us dominating everything is plainly untrue.

I do agree that the effect of NIL is yet to be really understood. But personally I think it is highly unlikely you're going to find many rich donors willing to pay seven figures to an unproven HS student in hopes he turns out to be good. Maybe $50k. But millions? I doubt it.
 
18in32 said:
People who think college football is dominated by a tiny handful of teams now... forget that college football has always been dominated by a tiny handful of teams. The teams change, with changing demographics, changing coaches, etc. But there's never been a time when dozens of teams were likely nat'l champ contenders every year.

Moreover, college football has been moving in a more and more egalitarian direction for decades. Fewer scholarships make it hard for powerhouses to stockpile talent. The transfer portal makes it harder for powerhouse to stockpile talent. Conference TV dollars are split evenly between schools, so we get as much money from Clemson dominating prime time as Clemson does. And it shows! A team made the playoff this year with a smaller athletic budget than us. Another team made the playoff this year despite starting the season unranked. Once upon a time that hardly every happened... For that matter, once upon a time, you had to finish #1 by the end of November to win it all. Now you just have to finished #4 by the end of November to have a chance to win it all.

The incredible success of crimson unicorn Nick Saban has totally altered everyone's perspective on CFB today. But it is hard to find anyone else comparable to him, at any other school. The closest are people like Mike Gundy and Kirk Ferentz. Otherwise the big name coaches fall prey to scandal, get hired away, burn out, etc. It's really hard to build a dynasty. The idea that they're all around us dominating everything is plainly untrue.

I do agree that the effect of NIL is yet to be really understood. But personally I think it is highly unlikely you're going to find many rich donors willing to pay seven figures to an unproven HS student in hopes he turns out to be good. Maybe $50k. But millions? I doubt it.
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If you think the playing field is still level then I think you missed the point of NIL - it's a way to pay players based on their potential. If the NCAA had authorized schools to pay players, the schools would have to pay all the players the same amount. Not only would this break the budget of smaller schools in addition to opening them up to discrimination lawsuits.

So NIL allows boosters to buy Herschel a Trans Am and a new house for Truitt's mom and a new house for Newton's parents. But you think the playing field is still level??

As uncle Jed used to say about Jethro, "One of these days, I need to have a looooooooong talk with that boy."
 
18in32 said:
People who think college football is dominated by a tiny handful of teams now... forget that college football has always been dominated by a tiny handful of teams. The teams change, with changing demographics, changing coaches, etc. But there's never been a time when dozens of teams were likely nat'l champ contenders every year.

Moreover, college football has been moving in a more and more egalitarian direction for decades. Fewer scholarships make it hard for powerhouses to stockpile talent. The transfer portal makes it harder for powerhouse to stockpile talent. Conference TV dollars are split evenly between schools, so we get as much money from Clemson dominating prime time as Clemson does. And it shows! A team made the playoff this year with a smaller athletic budget than us. Another team made the playoff this year despite starting the season unranked. Once upon a time that hardly every happened... For that matter, once upon a time, you had to finish #1 by the end of November to win it all. Now you just have to finished #4 by the end of November to have a chance to win it all.

The incredible success of crimson unicorn Nick Saban has totally altered everyone's perspective on CFB today. But it is hard to find anyone else comparable to him, at any other school. The closest are people like Mike Gundy and Kirk Ferentz. Otherwise the big name coaches fall prey to scandal, get hired away, burn out, etc. It's really hard to build a dynasty. The idea that they're all around us dominating everything is plainly untrue.

I do agree that the effect of NIL is yet to be really understood. But personally I think it is highly unlikely you're going to find many rich donors willing to pay seven figures to an unproven HS student in hopes he turns out to be good. Maybe $50k. But millions? I doubt it.
Click to expand...

The portal allows you to buy known performance so it’s not all about gambling on HS talent. Do you think the Oklahoma QB would be looking to transfer had he enrolled into school 3 years earlier? No way. How good can a team be if they can just pick the best players from less cash rich programs? For example, what if Bama paid Gibbs to come play…oh wait…
 
00Burdell said:
If you think the playing field is still level then I think you missed the point of NIL - it's a way to pay players based on their potential. If the NCAA had authorized schools to pay players, the schools would have to pay all the players the same amount. Not only would this break the budget of smaller schools in addition to opening them up to discrimination lawsuits.

So NIL allows boosters to buy Herschel a Trans Am and a new house for Truitt's mom and a new house for Newton's parents. But you think the playing field is still level??

As uncle Jed used to say about Jethro, "One of these days, I need to have a looooooooong talk with that boy."
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You don't read so good. I specifically said we'll have to see how NIL affects things. So far, Tech recruiting doesn't appear to have suffered much from NIL, and CGC has made a pretty compelling argument why it could actually benefit us. (Is your name image and likeness going to have a higher value in Blacksburg or in Atlanta?)

But it just doesn't make sense that HS kids are going to be cleaning up with millions. Consider how much money NFL teams lose on draft busts every year – now multiply the risk by a ten, and the reward by one-tenth – that's what the "booster free-for-all" you're envisioning will actually look like... the reality is that very few HS players are worth much of a risk, and the boosters who are funding NIL are essentially making charitable transfers since they are unlikely to recoup their investment on NIL. It's one thing to give money to the AA, get a tax deduction, get your name in the program, network with other rich guys, etc. But give those dollars to the parents of some rando HS QB? Much harder sell – especially after a few years of 'draft busts' dampen booster's enthusiasm for this new system.

Yes, the Herschel's of the world may get above-board Trans Am's now... but the Herschel's of the world were supposedly already getting Trans Am's. If anything this levels the playing field by letting keep-your-nose-clean boosters at places like Tech the opportunity to support recruiting in a way they couldn't before. If we'd had NIL back in the day, maybe we could've kept Tuitt.

Or maybe not – but NIL is way too new for anyone to be able to predict what it'll actually do.
 
TechAKnee said:
The portal allows you to buy known performance so it’s not all about gambling on HS talent. Do you think the Oklahoma QB would be looking to transfer had he enrolled into school 3 years earlier? No way. How good can a team be if they can just pick the best players from less cash rich programs? For example, what if Bama paid Gibbs to come play…oh wait…
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Is there any evidence at all that Gibbs left GT because of a NIL payment he's getting at Bama? Gibbs left Atlanta because his coach left and his team sucked. The kid wants to win; I think we all sympathize.

Caleb Williams just lost his head coach (and supposed QB whisperer). Kids don't transfer off teams that have a chance to win *after* they've proved themselves with playing time; they transfer when they couldn't get on the field or when their programs suck. (Or of course for a variety of personal reasons.)

The transfer portal is probably bad for CFB and bad for student athletes in general, but definitely benefits teams like GT that are often "fall back" schools. We'll benefit from disgruntled players looking for a fresh start and coming back home to Atlanta.
 
18in32 said:
Is there any evidence at all that Gibbs left GT because of a NIL payment he's getting at Bama? Gibbs left Atlanta because his coach left and his team sucked. The kid wants to win; I think we all sympathize.

Caleb Williams just lost his head coach (and supposed QB whisperer). Kids don't transfer off teams that have a chance to win *after* they've proved themselves with playing time; they transfer when they couldn't get on the field or when their programs suck. (Or of course for a variety of personal reasons.)

The transfer portal is probably bad for CFB and bad for student athletes in general, but definitely benefits teams like GT that are often "fall back" schools. We'll benefit from disgruntled players looking for a fresh start and coming back home to Atlanta.
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I’m sure Gibbs transferred for several reasons but I bet he got paid along the way. Caleb is in the portal solely for cash. Plenty of articles referencing that. He’s not leaving because his coach left. He’s in the portal to see what the highest bidder will offer.

Do you believe A&M gets the top recruiting class in the country without paying? If there is any truth behind this article, we will have zero chance to compete at a high level when we are trying to win with portal kids that couldn’t consistently see the field at their first stop.

https://brobible.com/sports/article/texas-am-recruiting-class-nil-money/
 
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TechAKnee said:
I’m sure Gibbs transferred for several reasons but I bet he got paid along the way. Caleb is in the portal solely for . Plenty of articles referencing that. He’s not leaving because his coach left. He’s in the portal to see what the highest bidder will offer.

Do you believe A&M gets the top recruiting class in the country without paying? If there is any truth behind this article, we will have zero chance to compete at a high level when we are trying to win with portal kids that couldn’t consistently see the field at their first stop.

https://brobible.com/sports/article/texas-am-recruiting-class-nil-money/
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A wag once said there are three categories of untruths... "lies, damned lies and statistics." Now there's a fourth category... wild internet speculation. "I bet" and "I'm sure" and so forth. Enjoy, it's free.
 
18in32 said:
A wag once said there are three categories of untruths... "lies, damned lies and statistics." Now there's a fourth category... wild internet speculation. "I bet" and "I'm sure" and so forth. Enjoy, it's free.
Click to expand...
No one is lying in this thread. We are all projecting the effect of NIL on recruiting.

Your vision of the future suggests that the distribution of recruiting wealth won't change when wealthy schools are now allowed to shell out millions to the best of the best.

How can you look at the roster of the dwags and Bama and think that?

It's just that now, what Bama and the dwags have been doing behind closed doors is now perfectly acceptable. Yet you think the Georgia Techs of the world still stand a chance? GT is as broke as the Ten Commandments. But, in your view, we can still compete with the big boys who can counter our offer of a free Waffle House T-Shirt with a $100k endorsement contract.
 
I think the answer is for college teams to group together and when a player moves, a transfer fee is made by the big team to the little team, just like EPL
As to Cincy, any team can now purchase a championship team. The issue with the ACC is that alumni are focused on real jobs, careers. Too many just are not interested. But if Wake has a few billionaires who want it bad enough, they can buy a team too.
Oregon just did this in the last twenty years. The PAC 12 is like the ACC and so far doesn’t want it bad enough. I think ND has the same kind of alumni, cheap compared to Alabama/LSU where alumni have no life and want to be seen with the Jones.
 
Ps. I think it will only be a few years til college football has the elite nfl type league of 32 teams. And due to poor timing, Tech will be out. This used to bother me, not any more.
Tech should drop uga or play them the first game of the year and move all their chips into creating a fan base and hope for better times. In other words, think ACC only. (This worked for Cincy!). Or move to the big ten if possible.
 
Lastly, Tech isn’t getting any top players via the Portal, we are getting top school rejects. It helps that we can fill in some gaps but like all decisions of late, every new college football program helps the rich.
 
18in32 said:
People who think college football is dominated by a tiny handful of teams now... forget that college football has always been dominated by a tiny handful of teams. The teams change, with changing demographics, changing coaches, etc. But there's never been a time when dozens of teams were likely nat'l champ contenders every year.

Moreover, college football has been moving in a more and more egalitarian direction for decades. Fewer scholarships make it hard for powerhouses to stockpile talent. The transfer portal makes it harder for powerhouse to stockpile talent. Conference TV dollars are split evenly between schools, so we get as much money from Clemson dominating prime time as Clemson does. And it shows! A team made the playoff this year with a smaller athletic budget than us. Another team made the playoff this year despite starting the season unranked. Once upon a time that hardly every happened... For that matter, once upon a time, you had to finish #1 by the end of November to win it all. Now you just have to finished #4 by the end of November to have a chance to win it all.

The incredible success of crimson unicorn Nick Saban has totally altered everyone's perspective on CFB today. But it is hard to find anyone else comparable to him, at any other school. The closest are people like Mike Gundy and Kirk Ferentz. Otherwise the big name coaches fall prey to scandal, get hired away, burn out, etc. It's really hard to build a dynasty. The idea that they're all around us dominating everything is plainly untrue.

I do agree that the effect of NIL is yet to be really understood. But personally I think it is highly unlikely you're going to find many rich donors willing to pay seven figures to an unproven HS student in hopes he turns out to be good. Maybe $50k. But millions? I doubt it.
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Agree with the first, disagree with the second. Scholarship limits may have an effect of preventing stockpiling talent in the sense that Bama can't field twice as many players as the competition, but it hasn't really stopped them from grabbing above the limit through greyshirting and such. The transfer portal is at best a double edged sword in stopping the stockpiling of talent. Sure maybe a talented 3rd stringer can leave, but conversely those teams can shake off busts with greater ease than ever and pull in even more talent from high school as well as grabbing talent from other schools when needed/available.

Conference TV dollars may be split evenly between schools and we get as much as Clemson, but it's becoming increasingly uneven between conferences and we end up getting less than Indiana (whose coach now makes nearly 2 million more than ours) and Vandy. Cincy can show that maybe money is not an absolutely in predicting but it's a heavily predicting trend. 1 or 2 relatively poorer teams in the playoffs out of 32 so far aren't strong statistics for a level playing field and this trend plus that first statement kind of undoes a bit of the idea of looking back at the old way of doing things being more uneven. Sure, now #4 in November has more of a chance, but even back then I'd imagine the teams in that range were still fairly consistent as you said, it's less likely there were a huge number of near misses of non-big name teams if that were the case. You could also look at the recent changes as giving those powerhouse teams additional chances at winning it all over a lesser team on a strong hot streak (a la UGA this year, Bama in 11 and 17).
 
00Burdell said:
No one is lying in this thread. We are all projecting the effect of NIL on recruiting.

Your vision of the future suggests that the distribution of recruiting wealth won't change when wealthy schools are now allowed to shell out millions to the best of the best.

How can you look at the roster of the dwags and Bama and think that?

It's just that now, what Bama and the dwags have been doing behind closed doors is now perfectly acceptable. Yet you think the Georgia Techs of the world still stand a chance? GT is as broke as the Ten Commandments. But, in your view, we can still compete with the big boys who can counter our offer of a free Waffle House T-Shirt with a $100k endorsement contract.
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No, you're not lying, but you are making things up for fun and internet giggles. Enjoy...
 
Another point, all issues need to be put on the table. For example, why is there a four year eligibility period. This is discrimination against late bloomers! Look at Wake, older team this year and they competed. When Bama sends kids to the NFL they replace with new young, and now rich players. Counter that with 25 year olds.
 
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