How NIL is changing recruiting

[slim1256]

I have no doubt some HS players / freshmen are getting paid, too. But I don't believe they're getting paid millions.

I'm not sure why you're so focused on these kids getting paid "millions." It doesn't have to be millions to wildly upset the already ööööty balance between CFB haves and have-nots. If a highly recruited o-lineman could secure a 50k deal by going to, oh, say, Texas A&M, vs a 10k deal going to *literally anywhere else* - most kids will go straight for the money. And I wouldn't blame them.

It's not about ONE KID getting millions that's going to upset the applecart. It's about paying an entire roster enough to make it worth each of their individual whiles to go to a specific school.

Get over the million dollars to one kid thing - those are edge cases. Deep money schools are going to have a huge recruiting advantage over schools with less money (even more so than ever before). Full stop.

 

[1982Jacket]

So can we all just now admit that FBS P5 football is actually professional football, there are no such things as student athletes in FBS P5 football, and students and alumni of any FBS P5 school really have zero tangible connections to the folks who play football on those teams? And there is no longer ANY reason at all for the players to have to matriculate to, or attend classes at, the FBS P5 school which sponsors their football team?

 

[TechAKnee]

I'm not sure why you're so focused on these kids getting paid "millions." It doesn't have to be millions to wildly upset the already ööööty balance between CFB haves and have-nots. If a highly recruited o-lineman could secure a 50k deal by going to, oh, say, Texas A&M, vs a 10k deal going to *literally anywhere else* - most kids will go straight for the money. And I wouldn't blame them.

It's not about ONE KID getting millions that's going to upset the applecart. It's about paying an entire roster enough to make it worth each of their individual whiles to go to a specific school.

Get over the million dollars to one kid thing - those are edge cases. Deep money schools are going to have a huge recruiting advantage over schools with less money (even more so than ever before). Full stop.

Totally agree with this. As BIll O’Brien said the portal is free agency but without rules. Rich schools can and will buy the elite talent that prove themselves at other schools.

 

[18in32]

I'm not sure why you're so focused on these kids getting paid "millions." It doesn't have to be millions to wildly upset the already ööööty balance between CFB haves and have-nots. If a highly recruited o-lineman could secure a 50k deal by going to, oh, say, Texas A&M, vs a 10k deal going to *literally anywhere else* - most kids will go straight for the money. And I wouldn't blame them.

It's not about ONE KID getting millions that's going to upset the applecart. It's about paying an entire roster enough to make it worth each of their individual whiles to go to a specific school.

Get over the million dollars to one kid thing - those are edge cases. Deep money schools are going to have a huge recruiting advantage over schools with less money (even more so than ever before). Full stop.

I'm willing to believe NIL will have some as-yet-unknown effects on CFB. But it's the overreach, hyperbole, rumor and innuendo I object to.

 

[ElCidBUZZingFAN]

Of course – but then the entire paradigm shifts back from 'businesses advertising with NIL' to 'boosters paying kids under table'. Which very well may happen. But do you really think a UGA booster is paying JT Daniels $1,000,000 to ride the pine?

I offer the SWC of the 80s as an example.

The entire conference spent time on the NCAA naughty list for cheating. SMU was the lone one that cheated, and it actually worked.

Baylor and TCU nearly lost their programs, too, and they were barely .500 teams the entire decade.

So, ya, boosters can be retarded.

 

[JoeCakeEater]

How can EMU (!) offer Caleb Williams $1 million to leave Oklahoma to go there, and Ga Tech can't even keep the players it already has?

A business can offer any player $1M to attend Georgia Tech, under the guise of NIL. Georgia Tech cannot offer a player $1M to attend GT. Getting outspent by EMU is a GT fan problem, moreso than a GT school problem.

 

[18in32]

So, ya, boosters can be retarded.

People are dumb, on that I agree. But (especially if they were smart enough to get rich to begin with) they don't usually make the same financial mistake over and over again. So perhaps there will be a spate of ill-advised NIL deals paying JT Daniels $1 mil to ride the pine. But that won't persist... because it ain't worth $1 mil to even the most die-hard fan, to have a player ride the pine. Once they realize how hard it is to predict which players are "worth it" those pre-enrollment deals will crater, and you'll get more Bryce Young deals. "Thank you for all you've done for us; we'd like to feature you in The Varsity's advertising."

 

[BrentwoodJacket]

I offer the SWC of the 80s as an example.

The entire conference spent time on the NCAA naughty list for cheating. SMU was the lone one that cheated, and it actually worked.

Baylor and TCU nearly lost their programs, too, and they were barely .500 teams the entire decade.

So, ya, boosters can be retarded.

Curious that Texas avoided any significant penalties.

 

[clapper]

If they want to spend that money, they’ll spend it on names from the factories (like Dwag #99 on billboards all over town currently).

I was wondering about that billboard and whether there was some tie between Morgan & Morgan and UGA(g), but it looks like that's not the case. They have similar billboards in West Virginia (2 different WVU players) and Kentucky (4 players on 1 billboard).

 

[RussianOffense]

People are dumb, on that I agree. But (especially if they were smart enough to get rich to begin with) they don't usually make the same financial mistake over and over again. So perhaps there will be a spate of ill-advised NIL deals paying JT Daniels $1 mil to ride the pine. But that won't persist... because it ain't worth $1 mil to even the most die-hard fan, to have a player ride the pine. Once they realize how hard it is to predict which players are "worth it" those pre-enrollment deals will crater, and you'll get more Bryce Young deals. "Thank you for all you've done for us; we'd like to feature you in The Varsity's advertising."

I doubt the duds will stop the pre-enrollment deals. The market just has to find the right price. If say 50% of highly ranked recruits pan out, if you pay $500,000 each then for $1mil you expect to have scored one great player. So I'd guess they'll spread to more players and for less money.

 

[JJacket]

How can EMU (!) offer Caleb Williams $1 million to leave Oklahoma to go there, and Ga Tech can't even keep the players it already has?

If I got a job offer in eastern Michigan, it would have to be for major bucks.

Although, I would love to have nice a summer home on the western shore of Lake Michigan (in Michigan looking over the lake at the sunset property)

 

[18in32]

I doubt the duds will stop the pre-enrollment deals. The market just has to find the right price. If say 50% of highly ranked recruits pan out, if you pay $500,000 each then for $1mil you expect to have scored one great player. So I'd guess they'll spread to more players and for less money.

Sounds like a supply and demand market that will find its own level. But, yeah, I could see a buncha $10k-$50k deals. Or (like EMU) coalitions of booster fundraisers that pool funds for particularly meaningful players.

 

[midatlantech]

Have you seen any confirmed reports anywhere of anyone getting money like that? I don't know how this stuff is reported to the NCAA (if at all), but don't let attention-hogs on the internet persuade you something is real without attribution.

I would think most players with seven-figure-deals would be so excited they'd be all over social media, bragging about it and showing the contract or the check or the cash or whatever. Show me a player (or school or NIL booster) trumpeting these completely legal million-dollar deals...

It is being reported in another site that Gibbs left for two reasons: Exposure to set up deals when he goes pro (NLI) and NLI.

 

[Buzzman72]

I suspect it will be way less that 20-25 teams with NIL being used this way; maybe less than 10. The TV market could go over a cliff as fans of the non-elite teams completely lose interest.

This all day!! ^^

 

[rocky top buzz]

Ratings are garbage. Not sure how large
Amounts of money keep Pouring in…


That’s a 10.4% drop in 5 years. I never thought I could NOT care about college football but it’s a totally different scene than the 80’s and 90’s.

Ratings are garbage? Those Ratings are higher than game 6 of the world series, right? CFB generates tons of money for a reason. I agree the centralizing of talent is likely to ruin this.

 

[Tampa Jacket]

People talking about the gap between the haves and have nots tend to overlook all the inconvenient data.

Cincinnati just went to the CFP.

The richest program in the world (TX) has had four coaches in the last nine years.

Yes. But the Cincinnatis, Boise States, TCUs and Georgia Techs in the CFB playoffs will be few and far between going forward. If Notre Dame was an full member of the ACC they would have probably win the ACC and replaced Cincinnati. And the difference in revenue and ratings would have been tens of millions of dollars.

“College”’football is dead. Goals 1,2, 3 and 4 are to make as much $$$ as possible, in that order.

The new transfer portals, free agency and paying players is designed to create a “mini-NFL”’called The SEC at the exclusion of 90% of other colleges.

 

[18in32]

Yes. But the Cincinnatis, Boise States, TCUs and Georgia Techs in the CFB playoffs will be few and far between going forward. If Notre Dame was an full member of the ACC they would have probably win the ACC and replaced Cincinnati. And the difference in revenue and ratings would have been tens of millions of dollars.

“College”’football is dead. Goals 1,2, 3 and 4 are to make as much $$$ as possible, in that order.

The new transfer portals, free agency and paying players is designed to create a “mini-NFL”’called The SEC at the exclusion of 90% of other colleges.

Cincinnati was undefeated and beat ND, and the ACC sucked anyhow. No way that beating WF or Pitt would've overcome that.

It ain't the players or the coaches fault that you and me and fans like us like watching them so much. But it's our interest that is driving these changes.

 

[JJacket]

Yes. But the Cincinnatis, Boise States, TCUs and Georgia Techs in the CFB playoffs will be few and far between going forward. If Notre Dame was an full member of the ACC they would have probably win the ACC and replaced Cincinnati. And the difference in revenue and ratings would have been tens of millions of dollars.

“College”’football is dead. Goals 1,2, 3 and 4 are to make as much $$$ as possible, in that order.

The new transfer portals, free agency and paying players is designed to create a “mini-NFL”’called The SEC at the exclusion of 90% of other colleges.

And, different from the NFL, there is no sort of salary cap in place. There is no sort of "franchise" player designation. A school with Texas money will just look at themselves as the Dallas Cowboys I'd the Cowboys had no caps in place. Endless funds. Texas is even aided by the 4-5 years a player can play. Just look at the lifespan of a player in the NFL. Texas has a built in, guaranteed way to rotate old blood out and new blood in.

I expect we may even see players not enroll for a freshman year and go to a year"s worth of intense training before enrolling and being able to maximize his worth to a school like Texas. I do t see what is stopping Texas boosters for paying for that.

There are endless possibilities to öööö up CFB now as the system gets gamed

 

[AlabamaBuzz]

In my mind, at some point, there will have to be a "major" league or premier league at the top echelon, maybe 25-30 teams, with the remaining 100 or so teams in the secondary league. I guess I could see some teams moving up and down (switching places) at the top of the secondary, bottom of the premier after each season. I guess if this were to happen, you would have to ask yourself, would you rather have the opportunity to be the best team in the secondary league or an also-ran in the premier league? And, the teams in the bottom grouping could choose to have an 8, 16, or heck, a 32 team playoff if they liked. (I do believe going to a 16 or 32 team playoff would require a 10-game regular season so that the number of games does not get out of hand)

I realize all of this is rank speculation, but I just don't see any other way when even the illusion of student-athlete is removed in CF. Are we really going to keep on pretending there is some sort of parity and all teams have a chance at the MNC?

The teams with the biggest $$ pockets and fan bases will be the ones at the top, as they generally are now. NIL and the portal, as sa(t)an pointed out, will only make it worse. On a sidenote, the season tics for teams in the top echelon, especially the top 10-15, will begin to become unaffordable to many, as NFL tickets are today.

 

[coit]

In my mind, at some point, there will have to be a "major" league or premier league at the top echelon, maybe 25-30 teams, with the remaining 100 or so teams in the secondary league. I guess I could see some teams moving up and down (switching places) at the top of the secondary, bottom of the premier after each season. I guess if this were to happen, you would have to ask yourself, would you rather have the opportunity to be the best team in the secondary league or an also-ran in the premier league? And, the teams in the bottom grouping could choose to have an 8, 16, or heck, a 32 team playoff if they liked. (I do believe going to a 16 or 32 team playoff would require a 10-game regular season so that the number of games does not get out of hand)

I realize all of this is rank speculation, but I just don't see any other way when even the illusion of student-athlete is removed in CF. Are we really going to keep on pretending there is some sort of parity and all teams have a chance at the MNC?

The teams with the biggest $$ pockets and fan bases will be the ones at the top, as they generally are now. NIL and the portal, as sa(t)an pointed out, will only make it worse. On a sidenote, the season tics for teams in the top echelon, especially the top 10-15, will begin to become unaffordable to many, as NFL tickets are today.

Is Ted Lasso interested in coming back to coach college football?