I think we can already assume it’s not Key unless everything else got ööööed up by petulant boosters and fans.
I don't think it's safe to assume that. Probably all we can safely assume is that Key was not the 100% first choice, no debate required -- because then you would have already announced him.
But short of that, it's difficult for us to assume anything because we have so little information and the leaks we have gotten have proven to be unreliable. There are multiple ways Key could still be HC without donor interference. Most would agree that Key has done enough to at least be considered for the job, so all it takes is for others to fall through.
Let's say Chadwell interviewed great, he has an exciting offense, super high ceiling, etc. He is the guy. But then he refuses to hire P5 experience for defense, so we won't give him the job. My understanding is that's the latest rumor about why he's not coming. Now our #1 guy is out.
Next up is BOB. Big name, lots of experience, proven to be able to navigate a difficult situation in college. However, it turns out he's too expensive and/or would rather go to the NFL. Now our #2 guy is out.
After that is Fritz. He's in the middle of a super successful season, busy schedule, we weren't able to interview him until yesterday. Obviously there are some concerns about his age and lack of P5 experience -- what if he wasn't able to alleviate those concerns or insisted on sticking with an FCS coaching staff as Chadwell did? That would mean our #3 guy is out with no donor interference.
Has Key done enough to be #4 in line? If we're already down on our list that far, even if there is someone we'd like more for the next season or two, is it possible Batt would rather sign Key to a cheap deal with an easy buyout so he can have another shot in a couple years if necessary?
This is all pretty plausible to me. Of course, it's also plausible that Batt decided on Fritz, something accurate finally did leak, and boosters lost their minds and are doing everything possible to stop it. We'll probably find out eventually, but given how difficult it's been to get accurate information about the ongoing search, there is very little we can safely assume at this point.