Which also means the B1G, SEC and B12 will ALL have 1-2 more contracts worth even more $$$ to each program before the ACC can renegotiate out of this horrible contract they are locked into. You literally just made FSU, Clemson, etc argument for them. ESPN knows they have the ACC over the table and can use the $$$ to negotiate the next SEC contract with.
Expansion
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gtGreg768b
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The only reason that ESPN has the ACC over the table is we aren't winning much, so no other network is offering to buy out the contract. If we start winning, ESPN will have to up the contract or another network will buy the ACC media rights.
The ACC really needs to expand or die. My heart says that if the ACC blows up, we would get picked up by the B1G or SEC. My head says we will be like Oregon State or Wazzu and S.O.L.. A healthy ACC gives us the best chance going forward. We should take Stanford, Cal, SMU, and make plans to take more if attractive options open up. The Big 12 is surviving and flourishing despite Texas and Oklahoma leaving because they expanded. The PAC12 is folding because they didn't expand.
stinger78
Jacket by the grace of God.
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If... the business model holds out.
There are signs it may not. Like ESPN refusing to accept the B1G's demand, thus losing them to Fox. Why would ESPN let the behemoth B1G go? Either they know that money is not sustainable over the next 7 years, or they are not well enough financially to guarantee that bill, or both. ESPN's parent company, Disney, in deep financial kimchi, and ESPN's contribution to profit has been waning, though still profitable, but laying off "talent" galore.
What will viewership look like in 5 years? With folks cutting the cable in droves, will the business plan transfer well to streaming? Will younger customers, now moving into adulthood, those raised on soccer and not football, support football on TV?
All these are questions that have no answer right now. I get it... strike while the iron's hot. However, that iron may already be cooling down and we don't know it yet except for some of these early warning signs.
It’s not an interesting school. It has no rivalries. It’s not a fun place to visit.
Buzzilla
I'm all out of bubblegum
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The wildcards are Apple, Amazon and possibly other streaming platforms like Netflix. But it should be obvious, they don't see the same value in CFB already invested by Disney/ESPN/Fox. Apple let the PAC-12 die and none of the others made any serious bids.
Amazon has already demonstrated they are willing to "over invest" on the NFL and willing to take losses for greater viewership marketshare. This isn't a new method of operation by Amazon.
It appears to me that Disney wants to unload ESPN and possibly specific deals they already have with the SEC/ACC. The "downsizing" to date appears they are trying to get the balance sheet on ESPN as healthy as possible before handing it off for whatever they can get. The ACC, as it is right now, still looks like a relative bargain IF FSU and others don't blow it up.
I think the bubble has popped. But that doesn't mean others won't try to pick up the pieces.
The problem remains, Disney/ESPN/Fox inflated this situation into the haves and the have nots and they've created the untenable disparity and acrimony among the schools. It's not going well right now and I don't see any of it ending well.
This doesn't take into account the broader circumstances in politics and the economy. You don't have to like any of it, but it is damn sure a factor. A major event in the stock market and/or geopolitically or any number of other chaotic events like we've seen in the last 3+ years and that just adds a helluva lot of fuel to an ongoing fire.
You nailed one point, while missing another.
College Football is #2 in TV $$$ ahead of MLB, NBA, F1, NASCAR, NHL and only behind the NFL. Is that coincidence?
I played soccer through high school, and guess what sport I continually follow the most? College Football followed by the NFL. You think I’m an anomaly when it comes to that?
The cord cutting thought needs to be put to bed. I have Hulu+ with RZ channel, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Netflix, etc. Hulu obviously has ESPN, B1GN, ACCN, SECN, FSI, FS2, CBS Sports, etc. Just because people are leaving Comcast, doesn’t mean they are no longer watching ESPN, etc to watch CFB.
Keep in mind, once Disney unloads ESPN, ESPN will likely get a boost from a new investor. Hopefully they willl go back to their core (sports) and stop mixing politics into it.
ESPN was only 1 piece in the conference realignment game we’ve seen over the last few years. Fox was the truly the one writing the check. For as much as people are upset about the loss of traditional conferences, in 3 years no one will care. Look at week 1 this year (week 0 is just a nice welcome back CFB). Here are your top games for week 1:
UF @ Utah (Thurs 8/31)
UofL-GT (Fri 9/1)
Boise State @ Washington (Sat 9/2)
WVU @ PSU (Sat 9/2)
South Carolina-UNC (Sat 9/2)
LSU-FSU (Sun 9/3)
This is one of the worst week 1 schedules on paper in a decade. In the future that won’t be the case. There won’t be as many P5 vs FCS, G5 games to start the year, especially when conferences go to a 9-10 game conference schedule.
The real issue with the future of CFB and even the NFL won’t be TV viewership. It will be attendance. I know I’m an example of that. I prefer a grill, multiple TV’s and beer at home every Saturday vs traffic, traffic, and more traffic. The last game I attended at BDS was probably 2015 (I don’t live in GA).
donsue
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Two ACC programs won titles three different years in the last decade. Winning isn’t the issue as much as it is brand values. The SEC has about 10 teams that get notoriety and eyeballs when they play. The ACC has two, maybe three.
gtg970g
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This looks like a pretty decent week 1 schedule. Not sure how it stacks up against the last decade though.
For reference here was 2022 week 1 featuring ranked teams:
WVU-Pitt (Thurs)
PSU-Purdue (Thurs)
ND-tOSU
Oregon-UGA
Utah-UF
Cincy-Arky
UNC-App State
Boise State-Oregon State
FSU-LSU (Sunday)
Clemson-GT (Mon)
gtGreg768b
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Disagree. When FSU went to the playoffs in 2014 after winning the title in 2013, we won the orange bowl, and Clemson beat the crap out of Oklahoma that same bowl season, the ACC was getting attention. The narrative that is constantly repeated by talking anuses like pawl finebaum is that we are a weak conference top to bottom, and Clemson did well because they play a bunch of weak opponents, and they would have been middle tier in the SEC. We need to handle business out of conference and during bowl season, and the narrative will change. The reason that the SEC teams get the benefit of the doubt after gagging away a midseason game is the perceived strength of their stupid conference. The only games that really matter to the conference pecking order are are OOC and bowl games. I love to see VPI and Duke lose to James Madison as much as the next guy, but I much prefer Michigan losing to App State or Alabama losing to ULM.
Remember in 2004 when an undefeated sec champion was left out of the national championship game in favor of USC and Oklahoma? When the SEC isn't cutting it out of conference, the narrative quickly changes to "the SEC is made up a bunch of backwater hick schools that care too much about mediocre football." Everyone loves a winner; if Miami was winning, or if VPI was winning, or if Louisville was winning, hell, if UNC was winning, they would command a lot of attention.
GTLiebs
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The question is if ESPN would allow their investment to lose perception like that regardless of results.
gtGreg768b
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Of course they will. It creates talking points. The Harlem Globetrotters need the Washington generals.
GTLiebs
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Well ya, that's kind of my point. Doesn't matter if the globetrotters start losing games, they still gonna be sold as the team that's gonna win. For what ESPN is paying to show the SEC games, you think they'll ever talk about them as being a weaker conference?
WREKedinTexas
Kick the tires and light the fires!
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F you sporto.
jts1207
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gtGreg768b
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I think they will always sell the SEC hard, but if the ACC stops crapping the bed in primetime, they will have to pay the ACC more, or some other network will buy the ACC media rights
This whole post is talking about almost 10 years ago (FSU, GT) and 20 years ago (USC, OU). Since 2014 the ACC has been pretty much Clemson and a couple other 10 win teams who can’t win OOC. Here is the list:
2015:
UNC 11-3
FSU 10-3
2016:
FSU 10-3
VT 10-4
2017:
Miami 10-3
2018:
Syracuse 10-3
2019:
No 10+ win team outsider of Clemson
2020:
ND 10-2
2021:
Pitt 11-3
2022:
FSU 10-3
The other conference mentioned at the bottom of the P5 aka the P12 had the following 10+ teams per season.
2015: (2)
Stanford 12-2
Utah 10-3
2016: (4)
Washington 12-2
Stanford 10-3
USC 10-3
Colorado 10-4
2017: (2)
USC 10-3
Washington 11-3
2018: (2)
Wazzou 11-2
Washington 10-4
2019: (2)
Oregon 12-2
Utah 10-3
2021: (2)
Oregon 10-4
Utah 10-4
2022: (5)
USC 11-3
Washington 11-2
Oregon 10-3
Oregon State 10-3
Utah 10-4
Both leagues have had some quality teams after the top 1-2, but losing OOC games continues to hurt both leagues. P12 had a banner year last year and may very well go out with a bang this year. The P12 is loaded at QB. The ACC needs to establish the #3-#5 teams. On paper that’s UNC, Pitt and NCSU. All 3 need to hold the line OOC. After that, GT, VT,Miami and Louisville need to start coming back to relevance with winning records. Right now Wake Forest is probably sitting as the 4th best ACC program based on their recent run of success, but we’ll see how much was Hartman and a veteran offense vs coaching.
This is a HUGE year for the ACC to quiet the critics and show positive progress on returning the brands back to relevance.
gtGreg768b
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So we agree. If the ACC holds serve out of conference, we aren't such a crap league.
I feel that the constant ACC bashing has rankled our fans to the point that they want to get out of the ACC at all costs. If the schools in the ACC actually live up to their projections (including us), we won't have to dream of playing away games in Wisconsin in November or kissing the rings of the SEC power brokers.