It really doesn’t matter at this point but we were simply not in the hunt at that point. We were ranked 11 going into the ACCCG. Too many things had to play out to get us in and none of them did, even if we won. Plus no team that loses to Duke or UNC should ever be in the playoffs, ever. Certainly no team that loses to both in the same season.
Well, here's my analysis. Take it or leave it. After COFH game, here are the rankings...
1 Alabama 11- 1
2 Oregon 11- 1
3 TCU 10- 1
4 Florida State 12- 0
5 Ohio State 11- 1
6 Baylor 10-1
7 Arizona 10-2
8 Michigan State 10-2
9 Kansas State 9-2
10 Mississippi State 10-2
11 Georgia Tech 10- 2
12 Mississippi 9-3
13 Wisconsin 10-2
What we needed to happen that didn't happen was: we play well and we beat FSU convincingly, Wisconsin eekes out a win over Ohio St in a sloppy game, and KS St beats Baylor in any fashion. All three of those were reasonably possible. Here's how I figure...
(1) In the SEC, Alabama was playing Missouri. Let's not even discuss the possibility that Missouri might've beaten Alabama in the SECCG. (They lost 42-13.) So Alabama had a slot over us.
(2) In the Pac 12, whether Oregon beat Arizona or vice versa, either team was going to be higher ranked than us, be a conf champ, and have one or two losses. So the Pac 12 champ had a slot over us, regardless who it was. Turned out to be Oregon. (Arizona then had three losses and wouldn't have been picked over two loss conf. champ GT.)
So that leaves two slots open.
(3) In the Big 12, there were three teams ranked above us: #3 TCU at 10-1, #6 Baylor at 10-1, and #9 KS St at 9-2. TCU beat Iowa St convincingly (55-3), so let's assume they would be in over us. Baylor and KS St, however, played each other the final weekend. Now, I concede that if Baylor won (as they did), it had a stronger resume than we did purely by virtue of having only one loss. (Baylor actually didn't have a tough out of conference schedule, and their loss was by 14 to an unranked WVU team.)
However, if KS St had beaten Baylor, then while TCU still has a strong case over us, KS St has two losses like we do and lost its high-profile SEC matchup. (KS St lost to Auburn earlier in the year, at the time ranked #5.) In my opinion, it's tough to see a two-loss KS St being the *second* Big 12 rep in the playoff over another two-loss conference champ. So if KS St beats Baylor, probably TCU gets an invite over us but KS St does not.
So with Alabama, Oregon and TCU in, there's still another slot we're fighting for, between the ACC and the Big 10 champs.
(4) In the Big 10, if Ohio St won (as they did), they'd be a one-loss conf champ and hence have the advantage over us. But if Wisconsin had beaten Ohio State, they would be a two-loss conf champ like us. Wisconsin was only ranked below us (#11 to #13) and their resume wasn't that strong. Like KS St, they lost their high-profile SEC matchup (lost to LSU at the beginning of the season, at the time ranked #13), whereas we'd just beaten #9 UGA at the end of the year. Wisconsin also lost to an unranked Northwestern team, while we lost to a ranked Duke team and an unranked UNC team. (All three were relatively close games.) In the committee's eyes, the comparison may have come down to how convincingly they beat Ohio St and how convincingly we beat FSU. But is not at all far-fetched that we would have been chosen over Wisconsin, depending how each of us played in that final game.
(5) So that leaves either us or FSU. The question is, if we beat FSU, would we have been more likely to be taken than FSU? This is tough since FSU would have only had one loss. But would the committee choose FSU over GT when FSU just lost to GT in the conf champ game? That seems unlikely to me, though of course we'll never know.
This is not like the situation in 2017 with Alabama getting in, because Alabama was prevented from competing for its conf champ because of the Auburn tie-breaker loss. In our situation, FSU would have just lost its conf champ game. And especially if we played well, I don't think FSU would get the nod over us. (You also have to remember that nobody liked FSU that year. Their schedule was weak, and they'd limped to their perfect record. People were looking for an excuse to drop them.)
So there you have it. In my opinion, as I drove to Charlotte for the ACC CG, what I was hoping for was a strong GT victory, a weak Wisconsin victory, and a KS St victory. None of those things happened, but none of them were far-fetched.
PS. To give some further credence to my analysis, consider this. Of all the teams I've mentioned that lost on champ weekend — Arizona, Missouri, Kansas State, Wisconsin, GT — we're the only one whose AP ranking actually went *up* following our loss (from #12 to #10). People thought really well of us at the end of the year. Our playoff possibilities were not a pipe dream.
