For those who think a new coach is the answer...

Dirty Jacket

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We won 10+ games, finished top-10 and was a couple of points from playoff in 2014.

Your 3rd sentence exactly makes my point. Their expectations are out of whack.
You are riding this made up narrative that we were within a few points of the playoffs in 2014. No the öööö we weren’t. No chance in hell we were going to the playoffs even if we pulled it out against FSU as we almost did.
 

Dirty Jacket

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The bottom line with Paul is this: sometimes change is just needed, even if what lies on the other side is unknown. Paul’s run at Tech has been admirable and frankly fun. But he’s done here. He’ll do better for himself somewhere else and our program and fan base needs something different.

Those of you who think our program needs to focus on marketing are fooling yourselves. People outside of Tech have historically not given a crap about Tech even when we were winning. Throw in an unpopular offense that is looked down upon by outsiders, 3 bad to horrible seasons in a row, and a coach who is definitely standoffish to the media —- no marketing is going to adjust that.

It’s time for change. The next coach probably wins no more than 10 games in 3 years before he’s fired but we’ve got to move in a different direction and develop a football program.
 

rghoae

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I don't think there is any disagreement with that statement. The disagreement is where people are placing the blame. Lot's of choices. It's popular to blame CPJ. Others like to point to past or present GT Presidents, others think it is past or present Athletic Directors.
I think it’s funny that now the DC cannot be blamed any longer, people have moved onto blaming the President and the ADs.
 
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Dirty Jacket

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I agree with coit.
It really doesn’t matter at this point but we were simply not in the hunt at that point. We were ranked 11 going into the ACCCG. Too many things had to play out to get us in and none of them did, even if we won. Plus no team that loses to Duke or UNC should ever be in the playoffs, ever. Certainly no team that loses to both in the same season.
 

Dirty Jacket

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I’ll also add that I don’t see Paul going anywhere after this season unless he steps down, which I think is growing more and more likely. But Todd won’t fire him after this season.
 

rghoae

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You are riding this made up narrative that we were within a few points of the playoffs in 2014. No the öööö we weren’t. No chance in hell we were going to the playoffs even if we pulled it out against FSU as we almost did.
We were ranked #12 in the final CFP ranking (the rankings used to decide the playoff teams). There is no way Tech could have made it in even if we beat FSU.

For one thing, both TCU and Baylor, who had a ton of hype, were ranked 5th and 6th would have remained ahead of us. Heck, it’s likely that even FSU would have remained ahead of us. Even if Ohio state lost to Wisconsin and we beat FSU, OSU might still have remained ranked ahead of us.

There was absolutely 0 % chance of tech making the CFP that year by beating FSU. We were not jumping 8 ranking spots with 1 win.
 

18in32

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It really doesn’t matter at this point but we were simply not in the hunt at that point. We were ranked 11 going into the ACCCG. Too many things had to play out to get us in and none of them did, even if we won. Plus no team that loses to Duke or UNC should ever be in the playoffs, ever. Certainly no team that loses to both in the same season.
Well, here's my analysis. Take it or leave it. After COFH game, here are the rankings...

1 Alabama 11- 1
2 Oregon 11- 1
3 TCU 10- 1
4 Florida State 12- 0
5 Ohio State 11- 1
6 Baylor 10-1
7 Arizona 10-2
8 Michigan State 10-2
9 Kansas State 9-2
10 Mississippi State 10-2
11 Georgia Tech 10- 2
12 Mississippi 9-3
13 Wisconsin 10-2

What we needed to happen that didn't happen was: we play well and we beat FSU convincingly, Wisconsin eekes out a win over Ohio St in a sloppy game, and KS St beats Baylor in any fashion. All three of those were reasonably possible. Here's how I figure...

(1) In the SEC, Alabama was playing Missouri. Let's not even discuss the possibility that Missouri might've beaten Alabama in the SECCG. (They lost 42-13.) So Alabama had a slot over us.

(2) In the Pac 12, whether Oregon beat Arizona or vice versa, either team was going to be higher ranked than us, be a conf champ, and have one or two losses. So the Pac 12 champ had a slot over us, regardless who it was. Turned out to be Oregon. (Arizona then had three losses and wouldn't have been picked over two loss conf. champ GT.)

So that leaves two slots open.

(3) In the Big 12, there were three teams ranked above us: #3 TCU at 10-1, #6 Baylor at 10-1, and #9 KS St at 9-2. TCU beat Iowa St convincingly (55-3), so let's assume they would be in over us. Baylor and KS St, however, played each other the final weekend. Now, I concede that if Baylor won (as they did), it had a stronger resume than we did purely by virtue of having only one loss. (Baylor actually didn't have a tough out of conference schedule, and their loss was by 14 to an unranked WVU team.)

However, if KS St had beaten Baylor, then while TCU still has a strong case over us, KS St has two losses like we do and lost its high-profile SEC matchup. (KS St lost to Auburn earlier in the year, at the time ranked #5.) In my opinion, it's tough to see a two-loss KS St being the *second* Big 12 rep in the playoff over another two-loss conference champ. So if KS St beats Baylor, probably TCU gets an invite over us but KS St does not.

So with Alabama, Oregon and TCU in, there's still another slot we're fighting for, between the ACC and the Big 10 champs.

(4) In the Big 10, if Ohio St won (as they did), they'd be a one-loss conf champ and hence have the advantage over us. But if Wisconsin had beaten Ohio State, they would be a two-loss conf champ like us. Wisconsin was only ranked below us (#11 to #13) and their resume wasn't that strong. Like KS St, they lost their high-profile SEC matchup (lost to LSU at the beginning of the season, at the time ranked #13), whereas we'd just beaten #9 UGA at the end of the year. Wisconsin also lost to an unranked Northwestern team, while we lost to a ranked Duke team and an unranked UNC team. (All three were relatively close games.) In the committee's eyes, the comparison may have come down to how convincingly they beat Ohio St and how convincingly we beat FSU. But is not at all far-fetched that we would have been chosen over Wisconsin, depending how each of us played in that final game.

(5) So that leaves either us or FSU. The question is, if we beat FSU, would we have been more likely to be taken than FSU? This is tough since FSU would have only had one loss. But would the committee choose FSU over GT when FSU just lost to GT in the conf champ game? That seems unlikely to me, though of course we'll never know.

This is not like the situation in 2017 with Alabama getting in, because Alabama was prevented from competing for its conf champ because of the Auburn tie-breaker loss. In our situation, FSU would have just lost its conf champ game. And especially if we played well, I don't think FSU would get the nod over us. (You also have to remember that nobody liked FSU that year. Their schedule was weak, and they'd limped to their perfect record. People were looking for an excuse to drop them.)

So there you have it. In my opinion, as I drove to Charlotte for the ACC CG, what I was hoping for was a strong GT victory, a weak Wisconsin victory, and a KS St victory. None of those things happened, but none of them were far-fetched.

PS. To give some further credence to my analysis, consider this. Of all the teams I've mentioned that lost on champ weekend — Arizona, Missouri, Kansas State, Wisconsin, GT — we're the only one whose AP ranking actually went *up* following our loss (from #12 to #10). People thought really well of us at the end of the year. Our playoff possibilities were not a pipe dream.
 
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rghoae

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Fair enough. Maybe 0% chance is wrong.

But we were certainly not “just a few points” away from making it into the CFP as the original poster in this discussion thread had claimed.

At the very least, we needed to beat FSU concincingly.

That being said, you’re dismissing the possibility that FSU would be ranked over us too easily. (1) If FSU was considered legitimate, they would have had a much better record than us. Look at the 2016 CFP rankings. PSU has 2 losses to Ohio State’s 1, but beat Ohio State. They were still ranked behind OSU. There is no reason to believe that our similar records would have trumped FSU’s.
(2) If people thought FSU were pretenders, that would make it even harder for us to have made it into the CFP, because we would only have proved that FSU wasn’t all that good, devaluing our signature win. This would have made it even harder for us to leapfrog teams with better or equivalent records.

Also our final CFP ranking was 12. Where did you see our ranking rise to 10?

I was in Charlotte for the game as well. I don’t remember a single person seriously considering we had a chance to make it to the CFP. If anyone did it was more of a “crazier things have happened” kind of belief.
 

gt2690b

PB time!
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I agree this is a legitimate part of the analysis as well. But, as for me, and I appear to be in the minority, I’m not ready to give up on PJ yet.

The other point is, on most occasions, I would bet the new coach isn’t walking into a stellar situation. After all, the prior coach has usually been run out of town because he’s messed up. It’s just a matter of how much of a crappy situation someone is willing to take on.
You want to keep the coach because it's so bad nobody else would want the job?
 

slugboy

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Also, I don’t care what Bradley thinks. Who is Walken? The point remains without their analysis though
Dan Wolken is the lead national college football and basketball columnist/reporter for USA Today. He lives in Atlanta (otherwise, he wouldn't tweet about GT as much as he does). He's got more sense than Bradley. I see him as a well-informed reporter who doesn't have an axe to grind either way here, but sees a little more of us because he's close by.

Since he covers everyone, I think he's pretty realistic that this is a good job and a good program that can be better. His opinion on CPJ is that it's hard to survive several losing years clustered together. The national writers and analysts I've seen seem to have a "we think Johnson can turn Georgia Tech around with the new defensive coordinator, but we're not sure that he'll last long enough to do that" view of us right now.

I can't say I hate those opinions. I think we could have a better coach. I think we could also end up with worse coaches. I don't see quick fixes.

It's been a while since I posted here, and I see I've been fitted with the Russell "Cone of Shame" avatar.
 

coit

Y’all got any more of that D Fence?
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Dan Wolken is the lead national college football and basketball columnist/reporter for USA Today. He lives in Atlanta (otherwise, he wouldn't tweet about GT as much as he does). He's got more sense than Bradley. I see him as a well-informed reporter who doesn't have an axe to grind either way here, but sees a little more of us because he's close by.

Since he covers everyone, I think he's pretty realistic that this is a good job and a good program that can be better. His opinion on CPJ is that it's hard to survive several losing years clustered together. The national writers and analysts I've seen seem to have a "we think Johnson can turn Georgia Tech around with the new defensive coordinator, but we're not sure that he'll last long enough to do that" view of us right now.

I can't say I hate those opinions. I think we could have a better coach. I think we could also end up with worse coaches. I don't see quick fixes.

It's been a while since I posted here, and I see I've been fitted with the Russell "Cone of Shame" avatar.

Hi Dan!
 
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Dan Wolken is the lead national college football and basketball columnist/reporter for USA Today. He lives in Atlanta (otherwise, he wouldn't tweet about GT as much as he does). He's got more sense than Bradley. I see him as a well-informed reporter who doesn't have an axe to grind either way here, but sees a little more of us because he's close by.

Since he covers everyone, I think he's pretty realistic that this is a good job and a good program that can be better. His opinion on CPJ is that it's hard to survive several losing years clustered together. The national writers and analysts I've seen seem to have a "we think Johnson can turn Georgia Tech around with the new defensive coordinator, but we're not sure that he'll last long enough to do that" view of us right now.

I can't say I hate those opinions. I think we could have a better coach. I think we could also end up with worse coaches. I don't see quick fixes.

It's been a while since I posted here, and I see I've been fitted with the Russell "Cone of Shame" avatar.
I consider that a badge of courage, it shows you care.
 

ramblinwise1

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Didn't we only make the ACC Champ game that year because at least one above us self imposed a ban on going to avoid some NCAA sanctions?
 

18in32

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Didn't we only make the ACC Champ game that year because at least one above us self imposed a ban on going to avoid some NCAA sanctions?
CPJ has been to so many ACC championship games, I can see why you'd get confused. But no, you're thinking of 2012 not 2014.

And to be clear, in 2012 we had the same conf records as UNC and Miami, but they held tie-breakers over us. We went ahead of them because they admitted to being cheaters. I can't feel too bad about it.
 

GEETEELEE

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This is what UMd fans thought about Fridge. They even bounced him as defending ACC COY. If we part ways with CPJ, I just want a plan in place on how we improve. Not just ‘new coach’, but better recruiting, improved facilities, improved marketing, and some sort of identity. We have the last one right now, it just isn’t selling to prospects or fans.
This. Changing coaches and nothing else will put us right back where we are now.
 

Dirty Jacket

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We were ranked #12 in the final CFP ranking (the rankings used to decide the playoff teams). There is no way Tech could have made it in even if we beat FSU.

For one thing, both TCU and Baylor, who had a ton of hype, were ranked 5th and 6th would have remained ahead of us. Heck, it’s likely that even FSU would have remained ahead of us. Even if Ohio state lost to Wisconsin and we beat FSU, OSU might still have remained ranked ahead of us.

There was absolutely 0 % chance of tech making the CFP that year by beating FSU. We were not jumping 8 ranking spots with 1 win.
Very thoughtful response with a great memory — I couldn’t remember the nuances just that we needed to win and several other things had to play out for us to maybe be considered.

My buddy and I went to the acccg that year and we didn’t even mention the cfp. It wasn’t on our radar. That was a fun weekend nonetheless.
 

bravejason

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...

My expectations aren't outrageous, but I expect them to be met with little wiggle room for failure. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect our bad seasons to be 7-5/6-6 with the semi-regular 8 or 9 win season and the occasional 10+ win season. From a record standpoint, I think Gailey did just fine.
That was CPJ 2008-2014. And 2015 looked like an unfortunate outlier after 2016. Gailey would probably have lasted longer if a couple of his 7 win seasons had been 8 win seasons with the 8th win being against uga.

As for this season to date and last season, I don't know what to think. Maybe the losses of assistant coaches Brian Bohannon and Todd Spencer were never fully recovered and it is showing up now because the players those guys coached have finally all graduated.

With respect to a new head coach, it had better be someone who will hire an OC to install a pass first offense. By the way, we are going to a general manager type of HC aren't we? No more HC as the OC or HC as the DC. I don't care if the offense is short pass horizontal offense or a long pass vertical stretch offense, but the new offense better be passing the ball 40+ times a game. After 10+ years of "Can't play from behind" - be it points or down & distance - I want the new slogan to be "Can't control the clock" and I want the whines to go from "Why don't we do short passes?" to "Why do we run on 3rd & short from the shotgun?". I love CPJ and want him stay, but if I'm in the minority, which it presently appears that I very much am, and a coaching change is made, then I want that change to move us to the other end of the spectrum; we can go to the middle of road approach with the coach after that.
 
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