Slow Progress

coit said:
Maybe I’m missing something? If your your FPI is 35 and your talent ranking is 35, that’s a 1.0, right?
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correct
a player's HS recruit talent rating doesn't change so about 3/4 of a team roster will stay the same yr/yr (numerator)
(denominator)others may disagree but since i don't believe the coaching performance will improve rapidly if at all, then i also think that the performance rankings won't improve rapidly based on talent alone
 
I guess I'm a sack cupper. Not at all happy with the win loss record of course. The key is keeping players on board and keeping/getting better recruits, which has already been brought up. If Collins could sell the three year deal to the guys we have now, at the very least he can sell the fact that we've lost a lot of games by few points, showing marginal improvement and can get better going forward.
 
BuzzinWreck78 said:
correct
a player's HS recruit talent rating doesn't change so about 3/4 of a team roster will stay the same yr/yr (numerator)
(denominator)others may disagree but since i don't believe the coaching performance will improve rapidly if at all, then i also think that the performance rankings won't improve rapidly based on talent alone
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I get the talent part. But with maturity and adding new players, We can go from a 60 FPI this year to a 30 FPI next year. There’s no limit on that was my point.
 
One of the big things too, is also how Collins speaks and presents himself after loses. Obviously the stingtalk crew doesn't like how he is. He essentially takes no accountability talking up his team as elites when they can't close the gap against mediocre teams in the ACC. No one cares about how hard you played ifbyou keep losing, especially when you keep losing the same ööööing way week in and week out.

If he's too sunshine and rainbows to be taught to take accountability as a grown ass man, that is a big issue, at least fake it until you make it. Better try to appease the fans in some way.

I'll admit I don't watch much of the pressers, never really have, just go by the comments and reactions on ST.
 
BuzzinWreck78 said:
@cyptomcat
Nah, .01 isn't way off but proves that i did copy and paste instead of rounding up (while swapping 19/21)
the metric certainly isn't precise but i think it's useful since being way way below 1.0 demonstrates a coaching problem.
(and highlights the difference between our teams coaching skill and recruiting skill)
the slight uptrend that you correctly noted sure isn't enough to convince me that we on a path to ever rise above mediocrity.
Look at how long it would take to ever rise substantially above 1.0
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You moved the goal posts so fast there!
 
BuzzinWreck78 said:
247 talent composite Ranks for GT last 3 seasons.

2019: 45
2020: 34
2021: 33

Talent/FPI ratio for GT last 3 seasons.

2019: 0.52
2020: 0.37
2021: 0.40

The clear indication from this ratio metric is that Collins is coaching our team down.
So I agree with your subsequent post about mediocrity.
Collins is wasting about half to 2/3 of our team talent .
Even if by 5th or 10th year Collins could get us to 20th in talent,
This ratio metric shows we'd still be 30th to 40th in performance.
That isn't what he's getting paid for.
I don't think anything less than 6-6 and top 50 ranking would be acceptable for 2021.
I always want Tech to win but don't think it will ever happen with this coach..
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CGC is 13th out 13th of GT HC’s that coached at GT more than a year. He can’t go any lower. He’s alone in last place, below college football HC’s Mendoza line. The dumb stuff is not a schtick, he’s just dumb. Now, he’s ashamed at how low he’s taken our program. He can’t even look anyone in the eye anymore.

A merciful AD would put him out of his misery if he had the resources but sadly he may not. We were running budget surpluses before CGC took over, we demolished our $5M rainy day fund plus operational reserves, and it took $2.9M of our money to get us to even last year. I can’t imagine what the deficit will be after this year. I’m guessing we’re about $2M behind in ticket sales this season but maybe we got something for having the game at the Benz so hopefully we’re only $1-1.25M down with cost cutting.

I hope we can beat one of BC’s öööötiest teams ever so we can salvage some dignity on the Flats. I’d hate for our Seniors to leave out of here without something positive happening. No amount of revisionist history from the Princess, Wrecksie or the mutt poser on here changes reality. We need to start with the basics like a real football team normally starts with in the spring not the BS hypey crap we’ve been pumping the players with.
 
Liberty said:
CGC is 13th out 13th of GT HC’s that coached at GT more than a year. He can’t go any lower. He’s alone in last place, below college football HC’s Mendoza line. The dumb stuff is not a schtick, he’s just dumb. Now, he’s ashamed at how low he’s taken our program. He can’t even look anyone in the eye anymore.

A merciful AD would put him out of his misery if he had the resources but sadly he may not. We were running budget surpluses before CGC took over, we demolished our $5M rainy day fund plus operational reserves, and it took $2.9M of our money to get us to even last year. I can’t imagine what the deficit will be after this year. I’m guessing we’re about $2M behind in ticket sales this season but maybe we got something for having the game at the Benz so hopefully we’re only $1-1.25M down with cost cutting.

I hope we can beat one of BC’s öööötiest teams ever so we can salvage some dignity on the Flats. I’d hate for our Seniors to leave out of here without something positive happening. No amount of revisionist history from the Princess, Wrecksie or the mutt poser on here changes reality. We need to start with the basics like a real football team normally starts with in the spring not the BS hypey crap we’ve been pumping the players with.
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We aren't firing Collins in the next 3 years, no matter how much you cry about it.
 
JJacket said:
Our athletes were brought here by Collins and staff. Sims and Gibbs would not be here otherwise. Nor would some of our young OL who we are developing and attempting to build depth.

We weren't working "well enough" at the end of CPJ's tenure, dumbass. We were sinking further and further into being Kennesaw State
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Not sure why so many of our fans don’t see it like this, as it is. Years 1 and 2 were always going to be a crap shoot, they would have been a crap shoot under PJ with no hope of getting better since the recruiting was trending downwards.

3 wins isn’t where I hoped to be this year, but the team was unbearable to watch in year 1. Were watchable this year, plenty of room for improvement, but watchable. The goal next year is to go bowling, if we’re 3-9 next year I’ll be concerned. We made very well need a change in coordinators, but I think it’s too early to say things aren’t working at all with Collins, too much to fix via roster management the first handful of seasons. It takes 3-5 years to build up lines, and it takes 2-3 seasons just to get enough recruiting classes under your belt to have ‘ok’ depth, with the first recruiting class basically being a crapshoot.

Our fans may not be happy about it, but it was always going to take time to rebuild from the moment we hired Johnson, let alone the state he left our OLine in with recruiting.
 
MidnightJacket said:
Not sure why so many of our fans don’t see it like this, as it is. Years 1 and 2 were always going to be a crap shoot, they would have been a crap shoot under PJ with no hope of getting better since the recruiting was trending downwards.

3 wins isn’t where I hoped to be this year, but the team was unbearable to watch in year 1. Were watchable this year, plenty of room for improvement, but watchable. The goal next year is to go bowling, if we’re 3-9 next year I’ll be concerned. We made very well need a change in coordinators, but I think it’s too early to say things aren’t working at all with Collins, too much to fix via roster management the first handful of seasons. It takes 3-5 years to build up lines, and it takes 2-3 seasons just to get enough recruiting classes under your belt to have ‘ok’ depth, with the first recruiting class basically being a crapshoot.

Our fans may not be happy about it, but it was always going to take time to rebuild from the moment we hired Johnson, let alone the state he left our OLine in with recruiting.
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Maybe you are right about years 1 and 2 being a crap shoot, but you and I defer on our definition of "watchable"
 
MidnightJacket said:
Not sure why so many of our fans don’t see it like this, as it is. Years 1 and 2 were always going to be a crap shoot, they would have been a crap shoot under PJ with no hope of getting better since the recruiting was trending downwards.

3 wins isn’t where I hoped to be this year, but the team was unbearable to watch in year 1. Were watchable this year, plenty of room for improvement, but watchable. The goal next year is to go bowling, if we’re 3-9 next year I’ll be concerned. We made very well need a change in coordinators, but I think it’s too early to say things aren’t working at all with Collins, too much to fix via roster management the first handful of seasons. It takes 3-5 years to build up lines, and it takes 2-3 seasons just to get enough recruiting classes under your belt to have ‘ok’ depth, with the first recruiting class basically being a crapshoot.

Our fans may not be happy about it, but it was always going to take time to rebuild from the moment we hired Johnson, let alone the state he left our OLine in with recruiting.
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I will agree with that. If we go another 3-9 next year.. I think its over folks. I mean cmon...thisnyear I have seen at least SOME progression. And some things still make sense, but if we lose alot of people to portal or recruits AND win a other 3 games..... we gotta cut bait as soon as possible
 
MidnightJacket said:
Not sure why so many of our fans don’t see it like this, as it is. Years 1 and 2 were always going to be a crap shoot, they would have been a crap shoot under PJ with no hope of getting better since the recruiting was trending downwards.

3 wins isn’t where I hoped to be this year, but the team was unbearable to watch in year 1. Were watchable this year, plenty of room for improvement, but watchable. The goal next year is to go bowling, if we’re 3-9 next year I’ll be concerned. We made very well need a change in coordinators, but I think it’s too early to say things aren’t working at all with Collins, too much to fix via roster management the first handful of seasons. It takes 3-5 years to build up lines, and it takes 2-3 seasons just to get enough recruiting classes under your belt to have ‘ok’ depth, with the first recruiting class basically being a crapshoot.

Our fans may not be happy about it, but it was always going to take time to rebuild from the moment we hired Johnson, let alone the state he left our OLine in with recruiting.
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Lies.

recruiting ranks:
2013: 70
2014: 50
2015: 44
2016: 60
2017: 48
2018: 44

why do we lie to ourselves about where we were and what we were doing under Johnson? Why?

why does Collins automatically get 2 gimme years? Are we honestly saying a bowl in year 4 is where we thought we would be when hiring him? Then why the öööö did we get away from the system that gave us bowls nearly every year?
 
cyptomcat said:
ESPN FPI Ranks for GT last 3 seasons.

2019: 110
2020: 90
2021: 62

I am unhappy with the results so far this year, but we have played close in more games this year than we did last year.

3-6 (or the likely 3-9) is definitely not acceptable, so we will have to continue the improvement into 2022.

I don't think anything less than 6-6 and top 50 ranking is acceptable for 2022.
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If that pattern holds, team should finish 30ish next year. Progress it is.
 
GTCrew4b said:
why does Collins automatically get 2 gimme years?
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Are you even serious with this question? It has been discussed since the day he was brought on board, but if you need a refresher, take a look at the OL he inherited. And take a look at the TE and QB he inherited. And take a look at the WR he inherited.

And take a look at the DL he was given. A DL so bad, CPJ decided to “retire” rather than coach another year.
 
coit said:
I get the talent part. But with maturity and adding new players, We can go from a 60 FPI this year to a 30 FPI next year. There’s no limit on that was my point.
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Ok , i understand your point and that's where we disagree.
sure, a non GT team with rising talent,growing maturity AND decent coaching could rise from 60th to 30th in a single season.
Collins and our staff would simply screw it up and prevent that from happening.
since Collins and staff are relatively new to P5 one would hope their skills are improving. They aren't.they have no teacher
I don't think our performance rank can improve as fast as you think it can. I think it's ok to agree to disagree
going from 90 to 60 is easier than 60 to 30.
.
using the ratio metric n0minally, improving by our current improvement average .07 would take abt 7 years to improve by .47 to reach a total of 1.0.
at 1.0 a 35th talent level with average coaching and average maturity would come out 35th in performance.
even if we allow a 50% error rate, it's still 3.5 more years to become middle of pack at 35th. and a lot can go wrong in the meantime.

@cyptomcat
No i didn't move any goalposts
my position has been that we have crappy coaching from the get go.
clearly this methodology is more notional than precise
hope you can now see that this metric supports that assertion and what it is that we may disagree about.
If GT finishes in the top 25 next year,then i will have been proven wrong.
 
coit said:
Are you even serious with this question? It has been discussed since the day he was brought on board, but if you need a refresher, take a look at the OL he inherited. And take a look at the TE and QB he inherited. And take a look at the WR he inherited.

And take a look at the DL he was given. A DL so bad, CPJ decided to “retire” rather than coach another year.
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Look at what any coach “inherits.” Collins “inherited a team that was 20-15 over its last 3 regular seasons. He’s gone 9-22 with them without a UGA game to lose last year.
 
GTCrew4b said:
Look at what any coach “inherits.” Collins “inherited a team that was 20-15 over its last 3 regular seasons. He’s gone 9-22 with them without a UGA game to lose last year.
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Dude, give it a rest. He was given a team with exactly ZERO OL capable of pass protecting and executing the RPO offense.
 
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