Expansion Rumors…

midatlantech said:
I think you are way off. I do think that the timing of this during a very down period could really hurt Tech. However these are smart folks and for you to rank UVA ahead of GT is crazy dumb. NOBODY wants to watch UVA nationwide, UVA has done nothing in its football history. Tech is in a much better football area (home of college football), Tech has the 3rd best recruiting area in the country, Georgia has a bigger population than Virginia, etc. etc.

Regarding the other schools on your list ahead of us, you are ranking based on one conference over another. When you look at SEC, NCS is ahead of Tech mainly because UNC will go Big Ten first. But Tech is way ahead of NCS for history, research, reputation, football history, potential market, etc.

UL is never ever getting brought in by the Big Ten or the SEC. Why have them ahead of Tech is crazy dumb.

Lastly, Tech actually has a nice reputation for football environment when we are the least bit competitive. Picking us 16th when we are down does not really measure our past, present and future very well.
Click to expand...
You didn’t read that correctly. That was my rankings (1-19) of football atmospheres I’ve experienced since 2010. So yes, BDS is currently low on the list. My ranking of GT as a current football candidate based on the last 5 years of play in the ACC was 9th.

I think you’re overvaluing history in the context of expansion. Most recruits, etc have not seen GT play well since 2016. Living out west in California, no one really cared about any ACC school not named Clemson, FSU or even Miami. Despite FSU and Miami’s struggles, they are still seen in a different light.

I mentioned UofL and VT are not true candidates for the B1G due to academics, despite their football program’s being better than GT at the moment. That moved GT up to #7.

If the B1G got $500 million more for their TV deal by adding USC, UCLA, don’t you think they’re also going to look for a bump next time? Obviously ND is #1 on both the SEC & B1G’s board, but you’re fooling yourself if you think GT is ahead of any combination of the following:

Oregon
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Washington
UNC
NCSU
Stanford

Landing 4 on that list (ND also included as an option) is a significant boost in the eyes of TV execs. Stanford is the outlier due to their lack of attendance, but it seems the B1G wants a pod system. Atlanta / Georgia TV market should be good for GT, but the numbers against UGA playing / other SEC games every Saturday paint a different story.

GT playing in front of 40,000, and only selling out when Clemson and UGA fans fill up BDS is not exactly appealing to TV networks. So with that said, a GT-NW or GT-IU game at BDS would look as bad if not worse than when Duke, Wake, etc home games.
 
Where is the $500mil/year coming from in increased B1G TV Network revenues?
I would guess 90% of it is from California households who now pay $1/month for B1G network on their cable/satellite/streaming package.
If that is the case, the B1G network would be looking to go Nationwide and try to add teams in the most populous remaining states:
1) NY - Syracuse?
2) Texas - A&M and UT Austin would qualify, but they ain't leaving the SEC.....not sure if any other schools fit the B1G criteria
3) Florida - FSU or Miami
4) Georgia - GT
5) NC - UNC, NCSU or Duke
6) Virginia - UVA or VPI&SU

My guess as to the B1G priority list:
1) Notre Dame - national appeal / ratings, FOX network would love to broadcast their games
2) Clemson - top 6 national power / ratings
3) FSU or Miami (not both) - legacy power, can return to glory with the right coach, state of Florida
4) Syracuse - lots of TV revenue
5) GT - lots of TV revenue
6) UNC or NCSU - lots of TV revenue
7) UVA or VPI&SU - lots of TV revenue
 
Odds of some kind of TV deal between the Pac-12 and the ACC?
Pretty good … perhaps better than 50/50. ESPN could create a media partnership based on each league’s Tier 3 infrastructure, combining the ACC Network with the Pac-12 Network to create more subscribers, and revenue. For all their problems with distribution, the Pac-12 Networks are on the cutting edge with their remote broadcast technology.

What is going on with the Pac-12 negotiating window? Wasn’t Thursday the last day?

It was, if the process actually began the day after the Pac-12 announced it would commence formal contract negotiations. But as we noted on Thursday, the exclusive window for ESPN and Fox likely has been extended to account for the ongoing Big Ten negotiations. The Pac-12 would want to know which networks have grabbed a piece of the Big Ten’s media rights, while ESPN and Fox would want to know exactly what they’re spending on the Big Ten.

Best guess:

The exclusive window extends into September, no deal is reached, the Pac-12 takes its inventory to the open market and resolution comes in September or October.

Multiple Links:
www.mercurynews.com

Hotline mailbag: Kliavkoff’s grant-of-rights challenge, UCLA’s fate, Big 12 fans, streaming options, SDSU’s position and more

The conference must satisfy competing constituencies as its crafts a grant-of-rights contract that keeps the 10 remaining schools together.
www.mercurynews.com www.mercurynews.com


 
Beeski said:
Where is the $500mil/year coming from in increased B1G TV Network revenues?
I would guess 90% of it is from California households who now pay $1/month for B1G network on their cable/satellite/streaming package.
If that is the case, the B1G network would be looking to go Nationwide and try to add teams in the most populous remaining states:
1) NY - Syracuse?
2) Texas - A&M and UT Austin would qualify, but they ain't leaving the SEC.....not sure if any other schools fit the B1G criteria
3) Florida - FSU or Miami
4) Georgia - GT
5) NC - UNC, NCSU or Duke
6) Virginia - UVA or VPI&SU

My guess as to the B1G priority list:
1) Notre Dame - national appeal / ratings, FOX network would love to broadcast their games
2) Clemson - top 6 national power / ratings
3) FSU or Miami (not both) - legacy power, can return to glory with the right coach, state of Florida
4) Syracuse - lots of TV revenue
5) GT - lots of TV revenue
6) UNC or NCSU - lots of TV revenue
7) UVA or VPI&SU - lots of TV revenue
Click to expand...
The TV revenue for each state is a given. Clemson maintaining their recent football success is not (see Nebraska).

Airport access and recruiting hotbeds would argue for GT and Miami over the remainder other than ND. After that probably Syracuse purely on revenue then UNC and UVA based on revenue and academic reputation.

FSU, NC State and VPI have in-state alternatives with better academics so their best chance is an SEC bid. FSU is in a precarious position because they do not offer significant TV revenue to the SEC, airport access is limited and Florida may oppose them.
 
Last edited:
This article isn't really about expansion per se, but I think it's relevant to the overall discussion. Since it is behind a paywall, I downloaded it into two jpg files. I am attaching them here. I hope they can be read.
 

Attachments

  • Dan Wolken 1.jpg
    Dan Wolken 1.jpg
    87.9 KB · Views: 58
  • Dan Wolken 2.jpg
    Dan Wolken 2.jpg
    233 KB · Views: 57
FightOn!Jacket said:
GT playing in front of 40,000, and only selling out when Clemson and UGA fans fill up BDS is not exactly appealing to TV networks
Click to expand...

How much does that matter? The TV networks care who is tuning in, right? The people at the stadium are "part of the studio audience."
 
GT98 said:
How much does that matter? The TV networks care who is tuning in, right? The people at the stadium are "part of the studio audience."
Click to expand...
If we join the Big 10, the attendance will be much better for multiple reasons.
More important we should be much better due to the infusion of funds. In addition, playing in the Big 10 instead of the ACC will be a selling point for football recruits.
 
BrentwoodJacket said:
If we join the Big 10, the attendance will be much better for multiple reasons. More important we should be much better due to the infusion of funds. In addition, playing in the Big 10 instead of the ACC will be a selling point for football recruits.
Click to expand...
Be a much better selling point if the BIG10 would get GT, FSU, Miami, Clemson and let us play our 3 games against each other and then rotate the other BIG10 schools in.

You could even throw UNC in there and have us a 4 game pod and bring in the BIG10 schools on a rotational basis for the rest.
 
FightOn!Jacket said:
You didn’t read that correctly. That was my rankings (1-19) of football atmospheres I’ve experienced since 2010. So yes, BDS is currently low on the list. My ranking of GT as a current football candidate based on the last 5 years of play in the ACC was 9th.

I think you’re overvaluing history in the context of expansion. Most recruits, etc have not seen GT play well since 2016. Living out west in California, no one really cared about any ACC school not named Clemson, FSU or even Miami. Despite FSU and Miami’s struggles, they are still seen in a different light.

I mentioned UofL and VT are not true candidates for the B1G due to academics, despite their football program’s being better than GT at the moment. That moved GT up to #7.

If the B1G got $500 million more for their TV deal by adding USC, UCLA, don’t you think they’re also going to look for a bump next time? Obviously ND is #1 on both the SEC & B1G’s board, but you’re fooling yourself if you think GT is ahead of any combination of the following:

Oregon
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Washington
UNC
NCSU
Stanford

Landing 4 on that list (ND also included as an option) is a significant boost in the eyes of TV execs. Stanford is the outlier due to their lack of attendance, but it seems the B1G wants a pod system. Atlanta / Georgia TV market should be good for GT, but the numbers against UGA playing / other SEC games every Saturday paint a different story.

GT playing in front of 40,000, and only selling out when Clemson and UGA fans fill up BDS is not exactly appealing to TV networks. So with that said, a GT-NW or GT-IU game at BDS would look as bad if not worse than when Duke, Wake, etc home games.
Click to expand...


Well I seriously doubt that the Big Ten is impressed with what Nebraska has brought to the table. Yes they want teams that can compete but they are most interested in making money through TV expansion. Tech is in Atlanta and the state community provides rabid football fans and the 8th largest state population (pretty much tied with North Carolina). That is a strong combination. Add in that Tech is a big time player in research, has great access (this is going to be a big issue) and some decent history, I think Tech has a good chance of making it with the Big Ten.

And yes, I think we are roughly equal to Oregon, Miami, Washington, and Stanford and ahead of NCS. Actually for the Big Ten, I think we are slightly behind UNC, slightly ahead of UVA, equal to Stanford, FSU and Clemson and ahead of NCS. Now unfortunately for the SEC, we are likely Dead Last which really what makes things difficult for us. We have one option, period.
 
WracerX said:
I’ll clap if our kicker can put a few in the end zone for a touchback.
Click to expand...
We didn't have that problem last year. The problem we had is our kicker kicking FG's into the sideline seats like a foul ball.
 
midatlantech said:
Well I seriously doubt that the Big Ten is impressed with what Nebraska has brought to the table. Yes they want teams that can compete but they are most interested in making money through TV expansion. Tech is in Atlanta and the state community provides rabid football fans and the 8th largest state population (pretty much tied with North Carolina). That is a strong combination. Add in that Tech is a big time player in research, has great access (this is going to be a big issue) and some decent history, I think Tech has a good chance of making it with the Big Ten.

And yes, I think we are roughly equal to Oregon, Miami, Washington, and Stanford and ahead of NCS. Actually for the Big Ten, I think we are slightly behind UNC, slightly ahead of UVA, equal to Stanford, FSU and Clemson and ahead of NCS. Now unfortunately for the SEC, we are likely Dead Last which really what makes things difficult for us. We have one option, period.
Click to expand...
Clemson and FSU are like Nebraska with similar lack of easy access and potentially fading performance. Stanford brings no additional revenue. We bring more revenue, better access and a much better recruiting area than Washington or Oregon.
 
BrentwoodJacket said:
The TV revenue for each state is a given. Clemson maintaining their recent football success is not (see Nebraska).

Airport access and recruiting hotbeds would argue for GT and Miami over the remainder other than ND. After that probably Syracuse purely on revenue then UNC and UVA based on revenue and academic reputation.

FSU, NC State and VPI have in-state alternatives with better academics so their best chance is an SEC bid. FSU is in a precarious position because they do not offer significant TV revenue to the SEC, airport access is limited and Florida may oppose them.
Click to expand...
Clemson is in a massively different situation compared to Nebraska. Are you kidding yourself? They are an extension of the SEC at this point.

Clemson’s recruiting ground is all the SE states and California. While the state of South Carolina doesn‘t produce as many 4-5* players as Georgia, Florida, they still land pretty much whoever they want in-state. Flip side, the state of Nebraska produces absolutely no talent.

Recruiting hot beds of Atlanta & Miami are only benefiting one school at the moment. Miami. That is a non factor in GT’s favor.

Why would Syracuse be an option over Oregon, Washington, Stanford? That makes no sense. The B1G already has NY / NYC with Rutgers.

So let’s say the SEC goes with Clemson, FSU, NCSU & VT. And the B1G has 2 options from the ACC since Oregon & Washington are locks to get bids at this point. You really think GT would get a spot over Miami or UNC? Not going to happen with the current state of athletics. If there is further expansion past 20 to 24, that’s when GT becomes an option.
 
Beeski said:
Where is the $500mil/year coming from in increased B1G TV Network revenues?
I would guess 90% of it is from California households who now pay $1/month for B1G network on their cable/satellite/streaming package.
If that is the case, the B1G network would be looking to go Nationwide and try to add teams in the most populous remaining states:
1) NY - Syracuse?
2) Texas - A&M and UT Austin would qualify, but they ain't leaving the SEC.....not sure if any other schools fit the B1G criteria
3) Florida - FSU or Miami
4) Georgia - GT
5) NC - UNC, NCSU or Duke
6) Virginia - UVA or VPI&SU

My guess as to the B1G priority list:
1) Notre Dame - national appeal / ratings, FOX network would love to broadcast their games
2) Clemson - top 6 national power / ratings
3) FSU or Miami (not both) - legacy power, can return to glory with the right coach, state of Florida
4) Syracuse - lots of TV revenue
5) GT - lots of TV revenue
6) UNC or NCSU - lots of TV revenue
7) UVA or VPI&SU - lots of TV revenue
Click to expand...
I think something that’s being forgotten in all this is, Los Angeles has no competition. USC & UCLA aren’t competing and getting beaten week after week in ratings by UGA and the SEC ”Game of the week” etc like GT is. The Atlanta TV market is one thing, competing with the SEC in that same market is vastly different when comparing GT against Oregon, Washington, UNC, NCSU, Miami, etc.

Syracuse is not an option. They already have the NY / NYC market with Rutgers. Both UNC & NCSU bring more to the table currently vs GT from an athletics perspective. Sorry. They just do.
 
FightOn!Jacket said:
Clemson is in a massively different situation compared to Nebraska. Are you kidding yourself? They are an extension of the SEC at this point.

Clemson’s recruiting ground is all the SE states and California. While the state of South Carolina doesn‘t produce as many 4-5* players as Georgia, Florida, they still land pretty much whoever they want in-state. Flip side, the state of Nebraska produces absolutely no talent.

Recruiting hot beds of Atlanta & Miami are only benefiting one school at the moment. Miami. That is a non factor in GT’s favor.

Why would Syracuse be an option over Oregon, Washington, Stanford? That makes no sense. The B1G already has NY / NYC with Rutgers.

So let’s say the SEC goes with Clemson, FSU, NCSU & VT. And the B1G has 2 options from the ACC since Oregon & Washington are locks to get bids at this point. You really think GT would get a spot over Miami or UNC? Not going to happen with the current state of athletics. If there is further expansion past 20 to 24, that’s when GT becomes an option.
Click to expand...
My understanding is that the conference network contracts are written to pay significantly more in states containing a member school. Syracuse has value because they are in New York. Rutgers is in New Jersey.

Why do you think Washington and Oregon are locks?I think GT, UNC and Miami are all better options.
 
BrentwoodJacket said:
My understanding is that the conference network contracts are written to pay significantly more in states containing a member school. Syracuse has value because they are in New York. Rutgers is in New Jersey.

Why do you think Washington and Oregon are locks?I think GT, UNC and Miami are all better options.
Click to expand...
This is solely geared towards made for TV matchup’s, that’s why. That was the reason Texas & OU were added to the SEC, and USC with UCLA riding along to the B1G. ESPN / ABC wants Texas or OU vs UGA, Alabama, LSU, UF, etc. Same as Fox wants USC vs tOSU, Michigan, PSU, Wisconsin, etc.

Adding Oregon & Washington gives the B1G a 4 team West coast pod of football program’s who are relevant and see tickets. Do you really think Phil Knight is going to let Oregon get passed up in this whole mess? Heck no.

Adding Syracuse does absolutely nothing to move the meter. Landing 2 of Clemson, Miami, FSU, ND is the perfect situation for the B1G. With UNC, NCSU, GT, UVA, Stanford, Cal, etc as the 2nd tier picks.
 
Interesting development in that NBC (Comcast) now seems to be throwing their hat into the ring vs ESPN and Fox.
Things were clearly moving towards two Super Conferences - The ESPN and Fox conferences. Now, NBC, probably in fear of losing their
sacred cow (ND) to Fox, has reportedly made initial moves towards supplanting Fox as the B1G network with ND in tow as the bait.
This is quite interesting if it plays out. If so, that means we will probably end up with 3 Super Conferences instead of 2.
And, if Fox does get booted, I think that then leads them back to their regional model by cherry picking teams from the Pac12, Big12 and ACC to create that third conference.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top