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I'll be surprised if Texas ever joins the SEC. They would lose $$$ under the current scenario in doing so. Cannot see any of the SEC members agreeing to such uneven terms ($$$) that Texas gets now from the Big 12 (10). Even in a depleted Big 12 (10), they would still have a shot at a Nat'l title and get an automatic BCS bid--they could scrape together a few other teams from the Mtn. West/wherever and they would have a seat at the table.
Texas has a multi-decade contract w/their own network, not too mention the additional cross-promotion that will be coming from ESPN.
In addition, Texas views itself as a cut above the academics in the SEC and is a member of the AAU. I could see a move down the road to the Big 10 or PAC-10/12, but not the SEC.
They SEC needs Texas in order to dramatically shift the TV dollars upward for everyone in the conference--Texas doesn't need the SEC.