Expansion Rumors…

1982Jacket said:
So you were wrong before. What makes you think you're right now?
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I will be the first to say you want someone with some vision making these decisions. I'm forming my opinon on this topic using the same methodology I did back then - by assessing what the current landscape looks like.

All ACC programs came together and signed the the GOR back then. So long as the ACC stays in the same financial ballpark as the other conferences and all programs are committed, it's fair to want to stay a part of that. Since then we've seen UT and OU blow up the BigXII to go to the SEC. USC and UCLA high fived the sinking ship that is the PAC to go to the B1G. The FSU president has recently said they will be aggressive making decisions in regards to their situation in expansion. If FSU goes, Clemson won't be far behind them. Those are the 2 single most important matchups in the ACC I care about. Rumor is DRad was in favor of taking GT to the B1G when we were originally offered, rumor is he was exploring Clemson's options when he was there, and it's reasonable that he's doing the same at UM. The foundation of the ACC hasn't fallen apart yet, but it's definitely looking more and more like thin ice, being held together by the GOR. 2034-36 will tell the tale. There's a glimmer of hope for the ACC, but it largely depends on whether you have faith in ACC leadership.
 
I find this thread very interesting, almost comicial!

The ACC outlined three challenges for ACC commissioner Jim Phillips this past summer, who has huddled multiple times with conference athletic directors and presidents:

1. Manage simmering resentment among some members and lean on the ACC’s long-term grant of media rights to keep his current group intact. The barrels o’ cash the SEC and Big Ten can offer complicate the task. (Maybe unequal revenue sharing)

2. Cement the ACC’s access to the College Football Playoff by pushing aggressively for the 12-team model, complete with automatic bids to the six highest-rated conference champions, that he and others delayed after its June 2021 unveiling.

3. In concert with ESPN, determine if there’s a way to markedly enhance ACC revenue, through outright expansion or a television partnership with the Pac-12.

More than a decade of annual tax returns show that television accounts for approximately two-thirds of ACC revenue and subsequent distributions to members. Even if we conservatively estimate those yearly distributions to average $45 million per school through 2035-36, that’s $30 million annually in TV revenue.

If a school wanted to depart 10 years before the grant expired, the price could be $300 million, or more. Plus, the ACC's exit fee, three times a school's annual distribution, exceeds $100 million. The issue then becomes whether the grant of rights would be upheld in court and how pricey those proceedings would be. Since no one has challenged a conference GoR, the answer is anyones guess, but Texas and Oklahoma only left 1 year early. So yes in 2035 the ACC may lose some members if ESPN doesn't pay up.

We probably should talk about how to strengthen the BIG12 or Pac12 since in the last ten years (2013-2023) the ACC has become the #3 P-5 conf after everyone predicted the ACC's demise, No ACC Network...on and on....
 
“We’re in the process of finalizing the financials from [2021-22],” second-year commissioner Jim Phillips said, “and as expected, our schools will receive a sizable increase following the ACC Network reaching full distribution last December. We are proud to have exceeded our initial projections, resulting in additional revenue to our schools.”

This is notable for several reasons:

- First, the ACC in 2020-21 reported a league-record $578.3 million in revenue, which translated to an average per-school distribution of $36.1 million.

- Second, 2021-22 was a season in which the Orange Bowl, the ACC’s contracted New Year’s Six postseason game, hosted a College Football Playoff semifinal. In those years, the ACC does not receive its Orange Bowl payout.

- Finally, 2021-22 marked the first season that no ACC team qualified for the CFP, denying the league a $6 million CFP payout.

To summarize: Despite losing approximately $46 million, or 8%, of its 2020-21 revenue, the ACC still expects to report a significant revenue increase on its 2021-22 tax forms, which won’t be filed until late spring.

That’s how valuable full ACC Network distribution, attained (half a fiscal year) with December’s carriage deal with Xfinity Comcast, is to the conference, its schools and media partner ESPN.


richmond.com

Teel: ACC expects record revenue in 2021-22. How best to allocate now, and in future?

Obscured by understandable buzz surrounding North Carolina’s veteran talent, Duke’s coaching transition and potential NCAA tournament expansion was this nugget from the ACC’s preseason basketball gathering earlier this month:
richmond.com richmond.com
 
MidnightJacket said:
I will be the first to say you want someone with some vision making these decisions. I'm forming my opinon on this topic using the same methodology I did back then - by assessing what the current landscape looks like.

All ACC programs came together and signed the the GOR back then. So long as the ACC stays in the same financial ballpark as the other conferences and all programs are committed, it's fair to want to stay a part of that. Since then we've seen UT and OU blow up the BigXII to go to the SEC. USC and UCLA high fived the sinking ship that is the PAC to go to the B1G. The FSU president has recently said they will be aggressive making decisions in regards to their situation in expansion. If FSU goes, Clemson won't be far behind them. Those are the 2 single most important matchups in the ACC I care about. Rumor is DRad was in favor of taking GT to the B1G when we were originally offered, rumor is he was exploring Clemson's options when he was there, and it's reasonable that he's doing the same at UM. The foundation of the ACC hasn't fallen apart yet, but it's definitely looking more and more like thin ice, being held together by the GOR. 2034-36 will tell the tale. There's a glimmer of hope for the ACC, but it largely depends on whether you have faith in ACC leadership.
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Last thought: The safer option for GT in my mind is to get paid and go to a conference that is fully committed to football. Other teams won't be far behind us, so in my estimation if we want to continue to play regional football powers in conference, we need to start assessing what that will look like in another conference with some of our ACC peers.
 
MidnightJacket said:
I will be the first to say you want someone with some vision making these decisions. I'm forming my opinon on this topic using the same methodology I did back then - by assessing what the current landscape looks like.

All ACC programs came together and signed the the GOR back then. So long as the ACC stays in the same financial ballpark as the other conferences and all programs are committed, it's fair to want to stay a part of that. Since then we've seen UT and OU blow up the BigXII to go to the SEC. USC and UCLA high fived the sinking ship that is the PAC to go to the B1G. The FSU president has recently said they will be aggressive making decisions in regards to their situation in expansion. If FSU goes, Clemson won't be far behind them. Those are the 2 single most important matchups in the ACC I care about. Rumor is DRad was in favor of taking GT to the B1G when we were originally offered, rumor is he was exploring Clemson's options when he was there, and it's reasonable that he's doing the same at UM. The foundation of the ACC hasn't fallen apart yet, but it's definitely looking more and more like thin ice, being held together by the GOR. 2034-36 will tell the tale. There's a glimmer of hope for the ACC, but it largely depends on whether you have faith in ACC leadership.
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Since ESPN owns both ACC & SEC there is zero chance of poaching or realignment unless ESPN blesses it. However BIG (FOX, NBC, CBS) would want to poach ACC schools to build their brand and lob a grenade in SEC territory. Chances of that are zero IMHO, ND to the BIG has a better chance of happening.
 
GTFLETCH said:
Since ESPN owns both ACC & SEC there is zero chance of poaching or realignment unless ESPN blesses it. However BIG (FOX, NBC, CBS) would want to poach ACC schools to build their brand and lob a grenade in SEC territory. Chances of that are zero IMHO, ND to the BIG has a better chance of happening.
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This is my point, except that beyond ESPN, the SEC doesn't want GA Tech. The B1G might at some point work out, but I doubt it is anytime soon, and... I doubt we would be really happy 5 years later. Our best option is for the ACC to negotiate a better TV deal now that the ACCN is fully deployed. The missed funds, evenly distributed, would have bump 2021-22 payouts to near $40M per team. If the ACCN can even grow some (those numbers are with a half-year full deployment) and if the TV deal is able to increase (ESPN has a vested interest in the ACC's success), we could see per team payouts in the $40-50M range in the short term.
 
stinger78 said:
This is my point, except that beyond ESPN, the SEC doesn't want GA Tech. The B1G might at some point work out, but I doubt it is anytime soon, and... I doubt we would be really happy 5 years later. Our best option is for the ACC to negotiate a better TV deal now that the ACCN is fully deployed. The missed funds, evenly distributed, would have bump 2021-22 payouts to near $40M per team. If the ACCN can even grow some (those numbers are with a half-year full deployment) and if the TV deal is able to increase (ESPN has a vested interest in the ACC's success), we could see per team payouts in the $40-50M range in the short term.
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100% Agree and their is a "look-in" in 2026 & 2031. At every previous "look in" ESPN has increase their payout to the league!
 
GTFLETCH said:
100% Agree and their is a "look-in" in 2026 & 2031. At every previous "look in" ESPN has increase their payout to the league!
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But Eiger is back in at Disney. ESPN will be out from the Disney / ABC umbrella. He has said cuts and reevaluations of programs and staffing are incoming. The days of jumbo college football contracts may be over, especially for any conference that isn't BIG10 or ACC.

I am not sure about associating with the west coast, but hindsight makes me think maybe we should have pushed to get USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, and Washington to join us as a west coast pod. Maybe even Cal to appease any California legislators.
 
GTFLETCH said:
100% Agree and their is a "look-in" in 2026 & 2031. At every previous "look in" ESPN has increase their payout to the league!
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I think for fairly obvious reasons, the ACC will always lag behind the SEC/B1G in per-team payouts. However, there is a basis to expect a serious improvement at the times you pointed out, so I don't think the ACC will fold. I do think the B1G will eventually get around to offering several southern schools, and that GA Tech would be one of them. Atlanta and Tech would both be considered a big feather in their cap, as they are a collection of academic institutions that value athletics highly but also care greatly about academics and research, and not just the partying and "foobaw" games that most SECheat schools/fans value. I think we would fit well there. I just don't think the neighborhood is all that appealing. But... money rules now and if I had to bet, I'd bet that GA Tech ends up in the B1G somewhere between 5 and 10 years down the road.
 
mts315 said:
Haven't been following this thread so this may have been discussed but apparently FSU thinks it would take $120millioin to buy out of the ACC.

www.on3.com

Florida State Board of Trustees request buyout figure to leave ACC, staggering number returns

The idea of Florida State leaving the ACC first came up during a board of trustees meeting on Friday where Alford was asked about it.
www.on3.com www.on3.com
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What kind of lawyer puts a floor llike that on his own future litigation or negotiation?? How would a court ever go lower than $120 million when their own lawyer has already publicly conceded the $120 million number? :facepalm: If he says $120 million, and it would be recouped in four years, and there are 11 years left on the agreement and I'm the ACC lawyer, I say $330 million.
 
BrentwoodJacket said:
Why did the ACC and their members sign an agreement with a duration a decade longer than any other conference?
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Meet the absolute worst commissioner in the history of American college athletics:

1677275360923.jpeg
 
BrentwoodJacket said:
Why did the ACC and their members sign an agreement with a duration a decade longer than any other conference?
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The little girl either felt that revenue was near a peak or that the ACC could renegotiate by adjusting its membership in the future.
 
It's getting very hard to tell what any of you are arguing and this thread is deep in the slide into free association.

Who's going to court and why?
 
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