Expansion Rumors…

[mts315]

The rival “veto” power doesn’t exist any more. Otherwise, Texas A&M would have never allowed Texas to come in

As I said above, I don't think Texas A&M is a real worry of the power players of the SEC.

UGA, Alabama, UF, Tenn, Auburn and LSU could probably care less if Texas A&M got pissed and left because TX is coming.

 

[QuadF]

I'm not seeing how the big10 grabbing tech gives them the "Atlanta market" in regards to negotiating power. It seems like the biggest argument for negotiation is the average tv draw for a schools games being added to the total conference numbers, or an estimate of an increased draw because you expect that it's an exciting matchup. I'm not sure tech wins on either of those. The sec with the historic rivalries makes a lot of sense for us to expect an increase in viewership. I also expect Clemson to go there, so we'd have 2 massive rivalry games in the sec - makes sense that they'd want to keep that in-house instead of split.

 

[THWG247]

That's because its west coast. The midwest and east coast have both checked out when the PAC12 plays.

But wait, you said that West Coast/Cali market is the reason the BIG wanted them, why would they want a market that plays when everyone is asleep or already burned out from watching fb all day?

 

[mts315]

I'm not seeing how the big10 grabbing tech gives them the "Atlanta market" in regards to negotiating power. It seems like the biggest argument for negotiation is the average tv draw for a schools games being added to the total conference numbers, or an estimate of an increased draw because you expect that it's an exciting matchup. I'm not sure tech wins on either of those. The sec with the historic rivalries makes a lot of sense for us to expect an increase in viewership. I also expect Clemson to go there, so we'd have 2 massive rivalry games in the sec - makes sense that they'd want to keep that in-house instead of split.

I don't think their is a chance in hell we get invited to the SEC. UGA dominates the state already and we would bring nothing to the viewership. GT vs Alabama doesn't draw a single additional eyeball in Georgia that wouldn't already be watching any SEC game. However a game of SEC vs UNC or Virginia peels eyes away from a market that was previously watching an ACC game in an area that the SEC wasn't already in.

An SEC fan in DC or Virginia is rarely watching a Virginia game right now but if Virginia is playing and SEC team guess what a crap ton of people in that market are watching.

Same for BIG and GT. No OSU fan in ATL is sitting around waiting for OSU to play and saying, I think I'll watch GT vs Syracuse. But it GT is playing Michigan State or Wisconsin they will likely tune in as it effects the conference.

 

[WracerX]

I don’t disagree with this, unfortunatly I can’t find any WF/duke/Cuse/BC/UVA vs. SEC teams in primetime to compare ratings......oh wait, thats because literally nobody wants to see that sh!t

What do you mean? Vandy plays Wake and Duke periodically.

 

[JJacket]

Pretty sure that UF, UGA and USCe have always had a handshake agreement to never let in any other In-State schools. Why would they want to allow their chief rival to join the SEC and make more money. UF, UGA, and USCe have no incentive to help their in-state rivals. Giving Clemson, Miami, GT, or FSU access to the SEC only hurts UGA, UF, and USCe.

I could be wrong but I don't see anyway the SEC gives any rival teams of current members an invite.

If the roles were reversed and we were in a position to invite UGA to conference where they could be more competitive because they would be making more money, would you want that? I would say THWG let them wither. Hope they have to close up shop. I am sure UF, UGA, and USCe feel the exact same way about their rivals.

Because we become a league game and you can then schedule another patsy D2

 

[QuadF]

I don't think their is a chance in hell we get invited to the SEC. UGA dominates the state already and we would bring nothing to the viewership. GT vs Alabama doesn't draw a single additional eyeball in Georgia that wouldn't already be watching any SEC game. However a game of SEC vs UNC or Virginia peels eyes away from a market that was previously watching an ACC game in an area that the SEC wasn't already in.

An SEC fan in DC or Virginia is rarely watching a Virginia game right now but if Virginia is playing and SEC team guess what a crap ton of people in that market are watching.

Same for BIG and GT. No OSU fan in ATL is sitting around waiting for OSU to play and saying, I think I'll watch GT vs Syracuse. But it GT is playing Michigan State or Wisconsin they will likely tune in as it effects the conference.

A fan in VA or NC is watching the team theyre a fan of. People only halfway tune into conference games to see who they're going to play later and even then the focus is on rivals and conf leaders. I don't see how gt viewership in ga counts for less than an equivalent amount of va fans in VA.

Are you suggesting that uga fans wouldn't watch more gt games if we in their division?

 

[donsue]

As I said above, I don't think Texas A&M is a real worry of the power players of the SEC.

UGA, Alabama, UF, Tenn, Auburn and LSU could probably care less if Texas A&M got pissed and left because TX is coming.

You are just making my point. No one state school has the ability to unilaterally block an instate rival. They can lobby other schools to vote no, but can’t do it on their own. With a hugely expanded playoff, it would probably, as JJ pointed out, actually help UGA to play Tech as a conference game and play a mid major patsy as an OOC game

 

[mts315]

You are just making my point. No one state school has the ability to unilaterally block an instate rival. They can lobby other schools to vote no, but can’t do it on their own. With a hugely expanded playoff, it would probably, as JJ pointed out, actually help UGA to play Tech as a conference game and play a mid major patsy as an OOC game

If we get left out of the expansion lottery...we are their mid major patsy.

If it breaks like you think we are left in the cold and might as well join the AAC. The ACC is back to strictly a BBall conference if FSU and Clemson leave and BBall ain't paying the bills.

If I'm JBatt I'm call the BIG commish and giving him the scenario I am laying out. Hell I'd call the SEC and tell them to take UNC and Virginia and let's all get together and kill some major college programs.

Anyway. I'm done but will be sure to check back in 10 years to see if we are in the BIG or if we are playing a D2 schedule.

 

[stinger78]

But wait, you said that West Coast/Cali market is the reason the BIG wanted them, why would they want a market that plays when everyone is asleep or already burned out from watching fb all day?

Because when they play B1G folks the midwest and east TV’s will tune in, too. They’ll tune in late to watch when their team is playing.

 

[stinger78]

Virginia doesn't matter in this equation. UVA is 2 hours from Washington DC, which has a huge population of SEC Alumni who would love nothing more than to see their team play live 2 hours from their house. It is the same reason the BIG took Maryland a few years ago. Do you think anyone gave a crap about Maryland football? Do you think anyone does now?

The SEC wants to stay a regional conference, UNC and Virginia are the obvious choices for SEC expansion on the East Coast.

The BIG wants to be a national conference, GT and Miami make the most logistical travel sense, open hot beds of recruiting, and fit academically (especially GT).

It’s about potential TV sets as much as current viewership. You open a major new market and you don’t have a TV tuned in yet but it’s worth a lot of money.

 

[79tech]

Florida State, Clemson unhappy with ACC: Financial hurdles face conference powers potentially leaving

Don't expect FSU and Clemson to add to conference realignment unless they clear some financial hurdles

www.cbssports.com

rutro- Clemson and FSU leave and ACC dead.
4 year payback for leaving doesn't seem to be that punitive. How did and why is the ACC tv contract so crappy? Do the number of viewers support the lower tv revenues paid to ACC teams, or is it just a bad contract? Regardless. it will only last so long until ACC must pay more to some schools and less to others or they will leave.

 

[stinger78]

Florida State, Clemson unhappy with ACC: Financial hurdles face conference powers potentially leaving

Don't expect FSU and Clemson to add to conference realignment unless they clear some financial hurdles

www.cbssports.com

rutro- Clemson and FSU leave and ACC dead.
4 year payback for leaving doesn't seem to be that punitive. How did and why is the ACC tv contract so crappy? Do the number of viewers support the lower tv revenues paid to ACC teams, or is it just a bad contract? Regardless. it will only last so long until ACC must pay more to some schools and less to others or they will leave.

Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, Free Shoes and Clem.

 

[MatatoGT]

Florida State, Clemson unhappy with ACC: Financial hurdles face conference powers potentially leaving

Don't expect FSU and Clemson to add to conference realignment unless they clear some financial hurdles

www.cbssports.com

rutro- Clemson and FSU leave and ACC dead.
4 year payback for leaving doesn't seem to be that punitive. How did and why is the ACC tv contract so crappy? Do the number of viewers support the lower tv revenues paid to ACC teams, or is it just a bad contract? Regardless. it will only last so long until ACC must pay more to some schools and less to others or they will leave.

It's a bad contract now in retrospect. It was a 20-year deal made back in 2016. For that year, the money wasn't bad, but it locked us in to that for 20 years. Inflation alone should have made everyone realize that a 20 year fixed deal was unwise. And now the TV deals have skyrocketed for the other big(ger) leagues. And if you're selling your product for one price, and your competition next door is selling the same thing for double or triple that price, but you're contractually locked in to your lower price for the next 15 years, the only thing you can do is cut quality, cut your overhead, pay your staff less... or try to get out of the contract and get a deal like the one your neighbor has.

 

[Buzzilla]

So this thread is now 76 pages long and I'm not going to read all of it BUT has anyone mentioned what may happen if in the next few years ESPN/ABC continue to hemorrhage huge numbers of viewers (and subscribers)? What happens if Disney has to spin off ESPN? What do the contracts say if ESPN/ABC/Disney decides they need to terminate or "adjust" these conference TV deals?

Overall subscriber (and viewership) numbers for ESPN have been sinking for a long time now. Outkick did a deep dive last year you can read here: https://www.outkick.com/espn-lost-8-million-subscribers-in-2021-10-of-its-overall-subscriber-base/. You may or may not like the source, but the numbers are revealing.

The article was written in May 2022 and since then CEO of Disney Bob Chapek was hastily öööö canned in November after dismal earnings numbers. He had just signed a 3 year extension before being fired and replaced with old CEO Bob Iger.

Disney has problems. Big problems. I wouldn't be surprised if extraordinary actions are on the near term horizon.

The reason I bring this up is that there are a lot of long term decisions being made about conference memberships based on recent contract history that is almost certainly going to look very, very different in the next several years and beyond.

I have doubts that these coming changes have been fully considered in projections. Do these contracts have termination clauses if ESPN gets spun off into new ownership? How would that change what conference you want to be in now and in the future?

 

[ramblinwise1]

 

[GTLiebs]

Florida State, Clemson unhappy with ACC: Financial hurdles face conference powers potentially leaving

Don't expect FSU and Clemson to add to conference realignment unless they clear some financial hurdles

www.cbssports.com

rutro- Clemson and FSU leave and ACC dead.
4 year payback for leaving doesn't seem to be that punitive. How did and why is the ACC tv contract so crappy? Do the number of viewers support the lower tv revenues paid to ACC teams, or is it just a bad contract? Regardless. it will only last so long until ACC must pay more to some schools and less to others or they will leave.

The cost in that article is the minimum it would be, which I believe is 3 years of what the conference payout is or something like that. However that's only the conference exit fee and doesn't touch on the whole grant of rights issue, which worst case would completely kill television revenue for the school leave for a good while (in theory could be until 2036). That worst case is probably fairly unlikely.

Unequal revenue sharing is just putting a bandaid on a broken knee, it's a short-term solution that keeps those teams from leaving in the near term but probably doesn't save the conference long term. From what I understand there are "look-ins" on the contract intermittently that can increase the payout, but is ESPN gonna shell out more money if the bottom 3rd of the conference becomes money-starved and consistently worse that Vandy? Or how will Clemson and FSU feel about never getting good seeds or even a second spot in the playoffs because their conference strength of schedule is viewed the same as the Sun Belt? Maybe we're already nearing that second part, but that solution certainly won't change it.

 

[ScionOfSouthland]

The ACC is going to sit on its hands until a decision is forced on it. Clemson and FSU are gone the first chance they get.

The only path forward I can see is to find teams in other conferences that expand the media deal and renegotiate. Maybe you can pick up some out west and in Texas, make the move to pods, and stay afloat.

I suspect it will go more like the Big East… slow march to irrelevance and then a sudden collapse. The only reason it hasn’t happened yet is the media rights. Other teams are showing that isn’t the firewall it’s made out to be.

 

[GTLiebs]

The ACC is going to sit on its hands until a decision is forced on it. Clemson and FSU are gone the first chance they get.

The only path forward I can see is to find teams in other conferences that expand the media deal and renegotiate. Maybe you can pick up some out west and in Texas, make the move to pods, and stay afloat.

I suspect it will go more like the Big East… slow march to irrelevance and then a sudden collapse. The only reason it hasn’t happened yet is the media rights. Other teams are showing that isn’t the firewall it’s made out to be.

Other teams don't have a grant or rights contract with over a decade remaining. Maybe it'll get blown up in court and be irrelevant, but until it does it's a more formidable hurdle than anything that past teams that have moved conferences have faced.

 

[savbandjacket]

The ACC is going to sit on its hands until a decision is forced on it. Clemson and FSU are gone the first chance they get.

The only path forward I can see is to find teams in other conferences that expand the media deal and renegotiate. Maybe you can pick up some out west and in Texas, make the move to pods, and stay afloat.

I suspect it will go more like the Big East… slow march to irrelevance and then a sudden collapse. The only reason it hasn’t happened yet is the media rights. Other teams are showing that isn’t the firewall it’s made out to be.

They aren’t leaving unless there is a group of enough other schools ready to go at the same time such that there can be a vote to dissolve the conference, thereby ending the GOR. We need to be one of those schools with a prearranged landing spot in B1G or SEC.