Expansion Rumors…

GTLiebs said:
By that logic the only school left to them is ND. Florida and NC are too split in general to say any of those schools are an alpha in the market. And as @madRazor said, really all these schools only qualify as alphas in their markets if by "their markets" you mean only within college football.
Click to expand...

Who even says they are looking to continue to expand? You don't continue to add new schools unless they add incremental revenue above the current distribution. I don't think another team, outside ND, does that. Heck, Oregon and Washington got in by accepting a partial payout.
 
05GTCorndog said:
Who even says they are looking to continue to expand? You don't continue to add new schools unless they add incremental revenue above the current distribution. I don't think another team, outside ND, does that. Heck, Oregon and Washington got in by accepting a partial payout.
Click to expand...
So you think we've hit the true end of the road with these big expansion then? Cause the Big 10 only has options from teams in this southern footprint, most of them would be worth way less to the SEC so they'd be even less likely to make any moves in that train of thought.

As to Oregon and Washington and that, there was a lot said on that being not because the Big 10 wasn't interested in adding those teams in general, but because the Big 10 didn't want them joining just yet and mainly agreed to a deal due to the Pac 12 media deal collapse.
 
GTLiebs said:
So you think we've hit the true end of the road with these big expansion then? Cause the Big 10 only has options from teams in this southern footprint, most of them would be worth way less to the SEC so they'd be even less likely to make any moves in that train of thought.

As to Oregon and Washington and that, there was a lot said on that being not because the Big 10 wasn't interested in adding those teams in general, but because the Big 10 didn't want them joining just yet and mainly agreed to a deal due to the Pac 12 media deal collapse.
Click to expand...
Has any business ever said "welp, that's it, we are big and profitable enough" with new territories untapped? You just let your competition have it?
 
JJacket said:
Has any business ever said "welp, that's it, we are big and profitable enough" with new territories untapped? You just let your competition have it?
Click to expand...

If you are making $80 million per school, every school you add has to add more than $80 million to the collective pot for it to make sense to continue to expand. Sure, you can add 6 more teams, but by doing so you are watering down the distribution per school to $65 million. You think the schools want to take a pay cut so they can expand?

Who is left that will add a ton of revenue for the B1G? Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out. I'm not even sold on Clemson being that valuable.
 
05GTCorndog said:
If you are making $80 million per school, every school you add has to add more than $80 million to the collective pot for it to make sense to continue to expand. Sure, you can add 6 more teams, but by doing so you are watering down the distribution per school to $65 million. You think the schools want to take a pay cut so they can expand?

Who is left that will add a ton of revenue for the B1G? Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out. I'm not even sold on Clemson being that valuable.
Click to expand...
You're assuming that $80 million is the peak. It may not be. Teams may eventually be $120 million. Everyone assumes it can't get to that level, but CFB is about to undergo monumental changes. I think the moves that have been made are just the infancy of what CFB will become.
 
JJacket said:
You're assuming that $80 million is the peak. It may not be. Teams may eventually be $120 million. Everyone assumes it can't get to that level, but CFB is about to undergo monumental changes. I think the moves that have been made are just the infancy of what CFB will become.
Click to expand...

What‘s the payout to a conference for having a team in the 12 team playoff? Maybe the revenue is created by assuming the SEC and B1G will have 4-5 teams each year to offset the new additions? Once these 2 conferences realize they don’t need the NCAA, maybe they send 6 teams each for their own 12 team playoff vs each other and keep all the revenue.
 
05GTCorndog said:
Who even says they are looking to continue to expand? You don't continue to add new schools unless they add incremental revenue above the current distribution. I don't think another team, outside ND, does that. Heck, Oregon and Washington got in by accepting a partial payout.
Click to expand...
There are some weird stipulations in the Big Ten Network distribution contract. It can make sense for them to expand to new states but I’m not sure that negotiating power lasts much longer with the trend of cable cord cutting. But as streaming gets more expensive cable may make a comeback just due to its ease.
 
05GTCorndog said:
If you are making $80 million per school, every school you add has to add more than $80 million to the collective pot for it to make sense to continue to expand. Sure, you can add 6 more teams, but by doing so you are watering down the distribution per school to $65 million. You think the schools want to take a pay cut so they can expand?

Who is left that will add a ton of revenue for the B1G? Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out. I'm not even sold on Clemson being that valuable.
Click to expand...
Why would UNC be that valuable? They have never won anything in football and their basketball program is trending downward.
 
JJacket said:
You're assuming that $80 million is the peak. It may not be. Teams may eventually be $120 million. Everyone assumes it can't get to that level, but CFB is about to undergo monumental changes. I think the moves that have been made are just the infancy of what CFB will become.
Click to expand...

Ok, then the new teams have to bring in more than the $120 million distribution level to break even for the existing members. That number doesn't change the underlying issue. Simply adding more teams that have a lower 'worth' than the existing teams doesn't do anything for the league
 
JJacket said:
You're assuming that $80 million is the peak. It may not be. Teams may eventually be $120 million. Everyone assumes it can't get to that level, but CFB is about to undergo monumental changes. I think the moves that have been made are just the infancy of what CFB will become.
Click to expand...
This reads like we’re suddenly talking about housing prices circa early 2007 or WSB talking about stonks and being apes with diamond hands.

Or perhaps even better analogy, CFB about to enter NASCAR world where they think current fandom will just hang on for the ride while the suits blow the doors off what made it special for all these years.
 
05GTCorndog said:
If you are making $80 million per school, every school you add has to add more than $80 million to the collective pot for it to make sense to continue to expand. Sure, you can add 6 more teams, but by doing so you are watering down the distribution per school to $65 million. You think the schools want to take a pay cut so they can expand?

Who is left that will add a ton of revenue for the B1G? Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out. I'm not even sold on Clemson being that valuable.
Click to expand...
Also, for some of these middling schools, if you vote to expand... You take the check, you take the losses. If you're Miss St, are you willing to pick up another big name school just to give yourself another L?
 
GTsapper said:
Also, for some of these middling schools, if you vote to expand... You take the check, you take the losses. If you're Miss St, are you willing to pick up another big name school just to give yourself another L?
Click to expand...
Well if it’s UNC it wouldn’t be an L.
 
05GTCorndog said:
Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out
Click to expand...

ND yes, I guess a case could be made for UNC. Would UNC really leave its research triangle brethren behind? Would the NC legislature get involved if they tried?
 
05GTCorndog said:
If you are making $80 million per school, every school you add has to add more than $80 million to the collective pot for it to make sense to continue to expand. Sure, you can add 6 more teams, but by doing so you are watering down the distribution per school to $65 million. You think the schools want to take a pay cut so they can expand?

Who is left that will add a ton of revenue for the B1G? Notre Dame and UNC are the two brands that jump out. I'm not even sold on Clemson being that valuable.
Click to expand...
Ikm not going to argue about tv markets with you again, we can agree to disagree about their value to the BIG

Have cfb tv payouts ever gone down when a new contract is negotiated? More teams means more games in more slots to televise.

How is UNC going to add a ton of revenue? Their tv ratings are trash.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top