2024 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

coit

coit

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Nov 29, 2007
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It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2024 PPP!

The season is just about 8 weeks away, and a very tough schedule awaits. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that. Each poll will be open for at least 7 days.

Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:

Game 01 - Florida State - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-florida-state-in-2024.116871/
Game 02 - Georgia State - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-georgia-state-in-2024.116882/
Game 03 - Syracuse - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-syracuse-in-2024.116901/
Game 04 - VMI - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-vmi-in-2024.116921/
Game 05 - Louisville - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-louisville-in-2024.116942/
Game 06 - Duke - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-duke-in-2024.116961/
Game 07 - North Carolina - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...bility-we-beat-north-carolina-in-2024.116977/
Game 08 - Notre Dame - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-notre-dame-in-2024.116995/
Game 09 - Virginia Tech - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-virginia-tech-in-2024.117006/
Game 10 - Miami - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-miami-2024.117018/
Game 11 - NC State - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-nc-state-in-2024.117032/
Game 12 - UGA - Closes Aug 23 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-georgie-in-2024.117053/

---------------

In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

1. TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


2. GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.


3. GoGATech Raw Score:

This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.

GGTRaw = GGTScore / TIAScore = (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.


The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2023 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2023-preseason-probability-poll-results.115046/
2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/
2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/
2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
 
Last edited:
I did it for the first time last year granted had no idea how it worked
 
Can I propose a change for '24? Let everyone predict the whole year now and show that in the spreadsheet. As we go thru the year let folks update their predictions for future games only. Why? Because if you forget to make a weekly pick you will automatically get the preseason prediction value and still be in the running all year.
 
ramblinwise1 said:
Can I propose a change for '24? Let everyone predict the whole year now and show that in the spreadsheet. As we go thru the year let folks update their predictions for future games only. Why? Because if you forget to make a weekly pick you will automatically get the preseason prediction value and still be in the running all year.
Click to expand...

I did 2nd chance polls for every game last year (except for Louisville of course), but don't use the results for anything except gauging the change in confidence.

I'm not getting what you are suggesting in terms of how to use the updates for future games? This is a pre-season poll so that's a lot of the fun to see how well people do.
 
First pole is up! Gonna leave them open for 10 days for the folks that aren't logging in daily.
 
coit said:
It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2024 PPP!

The season is just about 8 weeks away, and a very tough schedule awaits. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that. Each poll will be open for at least 7 days.

Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:

Game 01 - Florida State - July 05 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-florida-state-in-2024.116871/
Game 02 - Georgia State - July 09 -
Game 03 - Syracuse - July 12 -
Game 04 - VMI - July 16 -
Game 05 - Louisville - July 19 -
Game 06 - Duke - July 23 -
Game 07 - North Carolina - July 26 -
Game 08 - Notre Dame - July 30 -
Game 09 - Virginia Tech - Aug 02 -
Game 10 - Miami - Aug 06
Game 11 - NC State - Aug 09 -
Game 12 - UGA - Aug 13 -

---------------

In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems

1. TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
This rewards those who realistically vote low probabilities for the games we end up losing and those who vote high probabilities for the games we end up winning.


2. GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:
  • 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
  • 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
  • 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
  • 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
  • 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
  • -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
  • -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
  • -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
  • -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss
The modified score is calculated by multiplying the TIA score by 1 minus the absolute value of each vote probability minus 0.5 minus the game result value above.

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.


3. GoGATech Raw Score:

This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.

GGTRaw = GGTScore / TIAScore = (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.


The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2023 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2023-preseason-probability-poll-results.115046/
2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/
2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/
2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/
2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/
Click to expand...
This öööö’s way too complicated and inherently flawed without a 1.0 option which is the only answer for all games.
 
ClubSeats said:
This öööö’s way too complicated and inherently flawed without a 1.0 option which is the only answer for all games.
Click to expand...

0.9 means 0.9 or higher. 0.1 means 0.1 or lower. This isn't rocket brain salad surgery.
 
I cannot figure out how this works, even though I'm sure it's very interesting. I think we will finish with a record of 8-5. I think Key is a really good coach and will improve by one win over last year. That's what great coaches do.
 
I found a copy of coit's poll on my cloud drive from 2016...
Also a Butthurt Trading Market info sheet from the same year

1000001272.jpg
 
coit said:
1. TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.
For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
  • If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
  • If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1
Click to expand...

So I’ve been thinking about adjusting this scoring to account for all of the whining about 1.0 and 0.0. Here’s what I’m thinking:

If we win a game you predict as 0.9 you get 1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.1 you get 1.0
If we win a game you predict as 0.1 you get -1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.9 you get -1.0

The scores in between would be ratioed accordingly. Or, the -1.0 scores would be 0.0. Any thoughts on this?
 
coit said:
So I’ve been thinking about adjusting this scoring to account for all of the whining about 1.0 and 0.0. Here’s what I’m thinking:

If we win a game you predict as 0.9 you get 1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.1 you get 1.0
If we win a game you predict as 0.1 you get -1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.9 you get -1.0

The scores in between would be ratioed accordingly. Or, the -1.0 scores would be 0.0. Any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...
Yeah, tell the whiners to go pound sand up their butts.
 
coit said:
So I’ve been thinking about adjusting this scoring to account for all of the whining about 1.0 and 0.0. Here’s what I’m thinking:

If we win a game you predict as 0.9 you get 1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.1 you get 1.0
If we win a game you predict as 0.1 you get -1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.9 you get -1.0

The scores in between would be ratioed accordingly. Or, the -1.0 scores would be 0.0. Any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...
do you by chance moonlight as a BLS economist?
 
coit said:
So I’ve been thinking about adjusting this scoring to account for all of the whining about 1.0 and 0.0. Here’s what I’m thinking:

If we win a game you predict as 0.9 you get 1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.1 you get 1.0
If we win a game you predict as 0.1 you get -1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.9 you get -1.0

The scores in between would be ratioed accordingly. Or, the -1.0 scores would be 0.0. Any thoughts on this?
Click to expand...
IMG_5234.gif
 
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